Showers and Storms, Then Cooler
Forecast Notes:* After a great run of pleasant weather, we are now transitioning to an active pattern. A cold front is gathering strength over the central U.S., and will be moving our way. We'll see a few widely scattered showers or storms tomorrow, especially across northern Mississippi. But, the majority of the storms will come later...
* As the cold front gets closer, our instability values will begin to increase. In fact, the latest run of the NAM shows our CAPE (instability) reaching up over 1000 J/Kg by Friday evening, with a Lifted Index of -3.9. Both of these values are marginal for widespread severe weather.
* The SPC has placed us under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on their latest Day 3 Outlook:
SPC Day 3 Outlook
* The bottom line is that we may see a few strong or severe storms. The main threat would be damaging winds, but we cannot rule out a few reports of small hail. The tornado threat seems pretty small at this time. The threat of severe weather here is iffy in my opinion - but that can certainly change between now and then. Check this space for frequent updates!
* Big cool-down on the way for the weekend. Highs Saturday will barely reach 70 degrees, and we could see 40 degrees by Sunday morning! We may even set a new record low if our forecast is off by a degree or two - the record low for Sunday is 38.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:41 PM
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