Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Heavy Rain Tonight...

* Rain continues to overspread the northern Gulf Coast. We'll see plenty of rain through the evening tonight. Many places will see an inch or more of rain with this, especially along and south of I-20. The SPC has a "Slight Risk" for severe weather for areas along and south of Highway 84. I don't think this will be a big deal for us, but we cannot rule out isolated pockets of small hail south of a line from Laurel to Waynesboro to Millry, Alabama. Again, doesn't look too bad.

* Clouds and patchy light rain will hang with us as a surface low deepens and moves east across southern Alabama into southern Georgia. We will forecast mostly cloudy conditions and scattered showers for Wednesday and Thursday. The upper trough associated with the surface low will swing through Thursday afternoon, and this will cause us to keep small rain chances going.

* I believe we may escape Friday and Saturday rain-free. There will be a surface low moving across the northern Plains, with an associated upper trough. These features should stay far enough north to keep us mostly dry. While there certainly could be an isolated shower across northern Mississippi Friday afternoon, I get the idea that many of us will stay dry.

* Closely watching the threat for severe weather late Sunday into Monday of next week. The GFS and European computer models are both advertising a strong surface low tracking northwest of us, with a strong negatively tilted trough. If these solutions verify, we could really be under the gun for severe weather on Monday. We'll keep a close eye on that over the coming days.

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