Monday, March 14, 2005

Alabama Tornado

* Still investigating the possible tornado in Noxubee County. The NWS told me today that they found no damage. WCBI (Columbus) is sending their morning meteorologist, Rich Wirdzek, down there to take some pictures and evaluate any damage. I'll be sure to pass along any new info on that.

* Confirmed tornado in Pickens County, Alabama. Here's the summary, courtesy of NWS Birmingham:

....NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINES F0 TORNADO DAMAGE OCCURRED IN WEST
CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MARCH 13....

NWS METEOROLOGIST CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY AND DETERMINED THAT AN F0 TORNADO DID OCCUR ACROSS THIS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SPECIFICALLY...A THUNDERSTORM MOVED OUT OF LOWNDES COUNTY....MISSISSIPPI AND MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY AROUND 949 PM CST....AND PRODUCED A TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 954 PM CST NEAR PINE GROVE.

THIS TORNADO THEN MOVED EAST NORTHEAST BEFORE LIFTING 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MCSHAN AROUND 1004 PM CST. TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 5 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 150 YARDS. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED, ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO AT LEAST 3 HOMES, AND 2 OUTBUILDINGS. MOST OF THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG WILL JONES ROAD. NO FATALITIES OR INJURIES OCCURRED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS IN EFFECT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 1000 PM CST.

* Heavy rain looks like a real possibility late tomorrow into tomorrow night. I think we'll see just a few showers early in the day, with most of the rain holding off until early afternoon. Here's tonight's run of the NAM, valid midnight Tuesday night:

NAM Valid Midnight Tuesday Night

That shows the accumulated rain that fell between 6pm Tuesday and midnight Tuesday night. As far as thunderstorms go, we could see a few isolated storms embedded within the shield of rain. However, these storms will be "elevated" -- this means that they will develop ABOVE a layer of cool air closest to the ground. The primary threat with elevated storms is generally small hail. So, we certainly do not anticipate any widespread severe weather Tuesday night. Worst case scenario is that a few people see some small hail. But, as always, we'll monitor it closely and update you if the situation changes.

* Lingering showers will stay with us for parts of Wednesday. We don't anticipate a washout, only mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and light rain. Another shortwave trough moves through by Thursday night into early Friday, this will cause some more light rain and showers. Again, not a washout.

* Let me say up front that this progressive, fast paced pattern is very difficult to forecast. Timing individual upper-air shortwaves moving in that fast-paced flow is almost impossible. So, the potential for error is great. Keep a close eye on this space for any amendments to our forecast!

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