Twin States Weather Blog

Saturday Early AM Update

* Good morning from Biloxi! I'm down here for the big Robert Plant concert later tonight. I'm a big Led Zeppelin fan, and the busy nature of things lately really left me wanting a weekend to just get away. So here I am.

* Still concerned about the threat of severe weather late Monday into early Tuesday. The SPC has outlined us in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. I expect this to be upgraded to a Moderate or High Risk in coming days.

* The National Weather Service is extremely concerned. Here's an excerpt from their morning discussion:

"ALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. SUPERCELLS AND EVEN A SQUALL LINE LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. VEERING AND INCREASING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADOES.

I'LL BE HONEST...WE HAVEN'T SEEN THIS COMBINATION OF REALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN QUITE SOME TIME. I CAN'T GIVE YOU ANY EXACT INSTABILITY VALUES...BUT JUST LOOKING AT HOW STEEP THE LAPSE RATES WILL
BE...2000-2500 JOULES OF MLCAPE WILL BE VERY REASONABLE. THIS SET UP WILL BE EXPLOSIVE! THESE EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST STRONG TORNADOES. REMEMBER...THIS IS STILL 3 DAYS AWAY AND THE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE WHAT MODE OF CONVECTION WE WILL HAVE AND IF SIG SVR STORMS WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED!"

* Pretty strong wording. We'll keep you up to date throughout the weekend and update the forecast as we get closer to the potential event.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 7:57 AM