Update for Thursday
* The 12z (morning) run of the computer models has been evaluated, and the threat of severe weather late Thursday seems to be slightly increasing. The 12z NAM brings our CAPE values up above 2000 J/kg by Thursday afternoon.The SPC Day 2 Outlook has most of area in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday/Thursday night. In this, they mention a possible upgrade to a moderate risk for us. Here's the outlook:
SPC Day 2 Outlook
* This is a tricky, tricky forecast with high "bust" potential. The threat of severe weather is highly dependent on the exact track of the surface low. Also critical will be the location of any morning rain or thunderstorms, which will create small-scale boundaries that enhance the local severe weather threat. It's simply too far out to try and pinpoint these factors right now, so check back for updates.
* For now, we'll stick with the idea that severe weather is possible across the area, with the worst of it along the I-20 corridor.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:34 AM
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