A Big Headache
* Very tough forecast on tap for the next 72 hours. Before we get started, let me say that this is a very difficult forecast with a high "bust" potential. But, I have to say what I think will happen, so here goes...* Looks like our first chance of rain comes Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A deepening area of low pressure over the central Plains will draw warm, moist air northward. This will set the stage for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. A few of those could be strong, but it doesn't look like a huge deal. We'll monitor it closely.
* The really tricky part is what happens Thursday night into Friday. We were concerned about the threat of a significant severe weather outbreak, that now appears to be a small threat. In fact, the latest run of the NAM model doesn't develop a closed surface low until after the system has moved east of us:
NAM Valid 6AM Friday
This would lead to a cold rain with perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the mix. I think this is off by a little bit, and the surface low will track slightly north of us. So, we'll leave a chance of thunderstorms in there for late Thursday into early Friday. Earlier today, the SPC hinted at an upgrade to a "Moderate" risk in later outlooks. At this point, I think that's unlikely. These things can change quickly, so we'll keep you posted. If we do see any severe weather, I believe it will be along and south of a line from Waynesboro to Demopolis.
* We do still anticipate a change to much cooler temperatures in here by Friday night, once the cold front pushes through. We could even see some snow as far south as the mountains of Tennessee and North Carolina!
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 9:55 PM
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