Watching Thursday...
* Starting to think we may have to continue to watch potential of severe weather Thursday. The 12z NAM develops more instability than previous runs - it gets our CAPE up above 2000 by Thursday afternoon. Helicity values on the NAM are rather low, but the presence of a deep trough and a strong low-level jet are worrisome.* The last couple of severe weather events have not been as bad as we had expected. While that is definitely a blessing, there is a natural tendency among weather forecasters to be "gun-shy." But, forecasting weather is not about what is in the past, but rather what is going to happen. That being said, we always try to learn from forecasts that don't pan out. But, we can't let those mistakes haunt us in later forecasts.
* It's a little early to really get into specifics, but I get the idea we'll see a cluster of storms, perhaps Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Then, by Thursday afternoon a line of storms will move across the area. This is a very rough first estimate, please understand that will will adjust this forecast over the next few days.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:15 AM
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