Severe (weather) headache
* This kind of a forecast gives me a headache. Don't take that the wrong way, because this kind of headache I like...it's just hard to determine what will happen. Rain is very likely tonight into Sunday morning from the lead shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet. That is not the headache...the problem lies in the the next shortwave...* The shortwave moves slightly to our northwest which would suggest a significant amount of uplift from a Jackson to Columbus line and northwestward, specifically the Delta region of MS. Next, the instability is really lacking. The NAM places only 500-800 J/kg of CAPE in here which is not very much. The big factor will be how much clearing will occur behind the MCS in place, and will it occur during sunlight (allowing for peak heating). If we get a ton of sunshine tomorrow, our forecast could really change. We'll just have to watch and wait.
* The main thing I am concerned with is wind shear. Our wind profile has a lot of speed shear and pretty good directional shear with vertical heights. While you need instability to generate storms that can use the shear to rotate, one thing really stands out. Historically we have had several events that have had less than sufficient instability but when storms did form they used every amount of shear available and rotated like a top. Remember the outbreak from Hurricane Rita? Hardly any instability was present, but the shear and helicity values were rather impressive. Again, this is a headache forecast. The thing to do is to keep checking this blog and our newscasts for updates! I'll be here until Monday morning around 3 am watching and waiting, just incase this were to formulate into a severe event! Also, it is a good idea to check the batteries in your NOAA weather radio!
posted by Renny Vandewege @ 10:10 PM
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