Morning Update
* Still watching the potential for severe weather today. We have a setup that is lacking in instability, but has strong dynamics.* The setup looks similar to Jon Davies' research at the Symposium this weekend. He suggested that one way to get severe weather in "non-classic" situations was extreme low level CAPE and steep lapse rates (the atmosphere cools faster than normal with height). We expect both of those to be present to some degree today.
* Current thinking is that we see a squall line go through here late this afternoon. Probably have some bowing segments with strong winds and perhaps some hail. Within this line, there could be a brief tornado or two. The threat of a widespread tornado outbreak is very low.
* Storms move out late tonight, with breezy weather after the front passes.
* 12z NAM looks rather interesting...Shows moisture falling into air cold enough to support snow. For now, we'll just leave our forecast as it is and evaluate this again later tonight. Here's the link to the 12z NAM:
12z NAM Valid Midnight Wednesday Night
Even if that verified, moisture is very limited. Doesn't look like a big deal, but we'll of course monitor it and keep you informed...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 9:55 AM
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