Severe Weather Today?
* Had a great time in Starkville this weekend at Symposium. Sure was nice to visit with old friends and learn some great weather info. I never get tired of hearing Jon Davies present -- definitely one of the brightest minds in the science today.* Still analyzing the possibility of severe weather later today (it is just after midnight as I write this). New Storm Prediction Center--"SPC"--Day 1 Outlook is out and it continues us under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. You can check it out:
Day 1 Outlook for Tomorrow
A deep upper-air trough will combine with warm, moist air to kick off showers and storms. The amount of unstable air in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere is rather significant. Here's that display from the 0z NAM:
0-3 KM CAPE Valid Midnight Monday Night
The color scheme there is tough to read, but notice the red bullseye from about Mendenhall to Newton. Values in that axis are running at about 260 J/Kg, which is supportive of severe thunderstorms. The overall instability in the entire atmosphere is in question. If we get sun, we could be in for a long afternoon and evening. Sun heats the surface, which leads to greater instability.
* Bottom line: Keep an eye on tomorrow. Although the SPC risk is "slight", they mention a possible upgrade to "moderate" later today. If we get some sunshine, watch out! We'll be monitoring it closely...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 12:50 AM
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