Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather Possible Sunday Night

* Hard to believe it's the twelve year anniversary of the infamous "Superstorm of 1993". I was ten years old at the time, and that event was a major reason that I began studying weather and wanting to do weather as a career. I have some pretty amazing pictures, I'll try to get those scanned and posted by tomorrow. Here's a link to NWS Birmingham's summary of the powerful snowstorm:

Blizzard of 1993

There was the Superstorm of '93, then a tornado hit near my home on Palm Sunday 1994, and then Hurricane Opal plowed through Alabama in October 1995. Seeing all of those powerful weather events at a young age ignited a passion for learning about weather that still burns deep. Looking back, I am really blessed to be here doing something I love...On to the forecast....

* I am growing increasingly concerned about the chance of some severe weather Sunday night. This is not a typical severe thunderstorm setup, but I believe we'll see some severe thunderstorms nonetheless. The "shear" -- or veering of the wind as you go up in the atmosphere -- will be strong, but we will not have much lift. There is basically no upper-level support with this setup -- but the overwhelming surface heating will lead to decent instability by afternoon.

* Here's a look at the instability (CAPE) in the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, courtesy of the latest NAM model run:

0-3 KM CAPE Tomorrow 6 PM

Note the bullseye over our area.

* The fly in the ointment will be the "cap" -- a layer of relatively warm air aloft. This layer of warm air will keep vertical thunderstorm development to a minimum. However, I think this layer will erode by late afternoon into the evening, and we'll see some thunderstorms develop. Please keep in mind that the areal coverage of thunderstorms will not be that great. So, some of you will probably stay completely dry, especially south of U.S. Highway 84. In the event that the "cap" doesn't break, I would imagine we'll all stay mostly dry.

* The best chance of severe weather will be across northern parts of our area. The main threat will be large hail. I anticipate some severe weather warnings, so stay close to a source of good weather information.

* I'll post again shortly, after the new Day 1 Outlook comes out at midnight. Also, I'll post tomorrow morning with an update after the Jackson upper-air sounding data comes out.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:41 PM