Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather Coming

* Continuing to evaluate the potential for severe weather early Tuesday morning. We'll have to adjust our timing somewhat...Now looks like the best chance comes between 2:00 AM - 10:00 AM.

* There is a significant threat for tornadoes and large hail. This situation bears close watching.

* Here are some numbers from the NAM model, valid noon tomorrow:

LI: -4.7
CAPE: 2060
SRH: 261.8
EHI: 3.2

For a great guide to these indices, check out the following website:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.htm

These are all very favorable for supercellular thunderstorms and possible tornadoes.

* Here's the scenario as we see it right now:

A cluster of thunderstorms moves through northern and western Mississippi late tonight. We will not see too much activity from this, but our northern and western counties could see some of these storms. We'll watch it.

The big show comes after midnight. Supercells will fire across southwestern Mississippi and move east-northeast. These will likely have some large hail and possibly tornadoes. The time frame of maximum concern is early Tuesday morning, from 2AM - 10AM.

* The SPC continues to have us under a "Moderate" risk for severe weather. Here's a link to that:

SPC Day 2 Outlook

* The new SPC Outlook will be issued at midnight tonight. I will post after that with an update, if not before then.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:17 PM