Twin States Weather Blog

SEVERE WEATHER -- SUNDAY UPDATE

*SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY*

Here with the late evening update on the severe weather threat in the next few days. While our main focus is on the weather happening Monday and Tuesay, we may have to talk about another severe threat by the Easter weekend. Still too far out to talk about specifics with this, but it appears parts of the Deep South may again see areas of strong storms by then.
The thinking now remains about the same as the afternoon. Two rounds of severe weather will be possible, with both featuring large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes.

*ROUND 1*

Supercell thunderstorms will form in the ARKLATEX region Monday and move into the Delta region of MS by Monday afternoon. Later in the evening and overnight, they should organize themselves into a squall line (damaging winds being the biggest threat), but any isolated storms ahead of the line will have the possibilty to rotate and produce tornades. It looks like the main threat at this time for tornadoes will be to the north and west of the Meridian area, but the squall line will likely affect Meridian and much of the state Monday night.

*ROUND 2*

By Tuesday afternoon, the bulk of the upper-level energy (fast jet stream, around 100 knots), moderate instability, and forcing mechanism (cold front) will be close to East MS and West AL. Another round of severe weather (including supercells with isolated tornadoes) will be possible Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday evening. The air aloft will be much colder, so large hail will also be a major threat, along with damaging straight-line winds. Should we see any sunshine to allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s on Monday or Tuesday, instability values will be much greater.

*OTHER THOUGHTS...*

Josh and I discussed today that the models may be under-estimating moisture return to the Deep South. With a low pressure center that strong, winds from the south, and the Gulf of Mexico 'open for business' I expect dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and possibly even touching 70 instead of the mid 60s values forecast for us. The quickest way to destablize the atmosphere is to add moisture, not heat, so this is something to keep in mind.

I expect the "Moderate" risk the Storm Prediction Center has out will be extended more to the east in future updates, and will possibly be upgraded to a very rare "High" risk. It is very possible that if we see tornadoes, some of them may be long-lived and violent. We say this not to scare people, but just to inform that as of right now, certain parameters are coming together to make for the possibility of a major outbreak of severe weather. Until we get into the time frame in question, we can't be much more specific than that.

Once again, and we've had this written everyday, but now is the time to have a severe weather safety plan and know where you are getting your watch and warning information from. Hopefully the first place won't be from us! We recommend that EVERY home, school, church, community center, and place of business have a NOAA Weather Radio. No, we aren't getting a cut of their profits for plugging them so much. They simply work and save lives.

Stay tuned to WTOK for weather updates Monday and Tuesday, and check back on the internet for frequent updates to the Blog and main weather page. Charles and Josh will be here Monday and Tuesday for weather coverage, and I will either be out in the field or right here with them if need be. Stay safe!

posted by Anonymous @ 8:54 PM