Twin States Weather Blog

Trouble Brewing

* I have just completed the 5:00 news and a full review of the latest 18z (afternoon) computer model guidance. This looks like a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes. Here is our latest idea on how things will happen:

A cluster of thunderstorms will track across north central Mississippi late tonight into early tomorrow morning. This will strengthen the gradient between cool and warm temperatures, forming and strengthening a boundary.

A surface area of low pressure will then form over northern Louisiana and track across northern Mississippi. There will be a zone southeast of this surface low where supercellular thunderstorms develop. These storms will have very large hail and strong damaging winds.

As these storms approach the boundary I mentioned above, they will likely begin to rotate, forming mesocyclones - which often are precursors of tornadoes. The maximum area of concern for tornadoes will be along this boundary. Pinpointing its location at this point is impossible, but I urge you to check back for updates late tonight and tomorrow morning.

The storms will likely develop around noon over southwestern Mississippi. They will start to affect our area by early afternoon, perhaps earlier over our western counties (Scott, Smith, etc.) The timeframe of concern is from 1 pm Saturday until around noon Sunday.

* Thanks go out to our new IM partners in Neshoba, Kemper, and Lauderdale Counties!

Ben Dudley (Kemper County)
Jeff Mayo (Neshoba County)
Lauderdale County (LEMA)

Thanks to their cooperation, we will be able to provide you with better weather coverage!

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 5:52 PM