Wednesday, March 23, 2005

Watching the Weekend

* The next few days look pretty fantastic. Tomorrow will feature almost full sunshine, with temperatures all the way up into the lower 70's. More nice weather will be around Friday, although we'll see a increase in the number of clouds. There is an outside chance of a shower across northern Mississippi Friday, but many locations will stay dry.

* Still watching the weekend system. A deep upper trough will be roaring through the southern Plains, while a surface low forms over northern Louisiana and moves through northern Mississippi. This is a favorable setup for severe weather, especially along and south of I-20.

* Our computer models offer differing solutions. First, the NAM is not as worrisome. It has impressive winds aloft, but does not develop a surface low. Here's that display:

NAM Surface Chart Valid Midnight Saturday Night

The GFS is far more aggressive with the development of the surface low:

GFS Surface Chart Valid Midnight Saturday Night


The European model is more in line with the GFS solution.

* Bottom line is that Easter weekend looks wet and stormy. And, some of the storms could be severe. We'll have a much better handle on this tomorrow and Friday.

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