Twin States Weather Blog

Winter Thoughts...

* Forgive the lack of posts, I have been very sick for most of this week - probably as sick as I've been in years. If you watched the weather segments this week, I'm sure you noticed my voice being off. But, I'm improving, and there are a lot of weather issues to discuss. The forecast between now and the weekend is fairly dull. Temperatures will be just below normal, with dry weather continuing. The fun really begins this weekend, as overrunning moisture will likely lead to some showers and thunderstorms. While we could see an isolated shower as early as the predawn hours Saturday morning, but the best chance of rain will hold off until late Sunday into Monday.

* Winter weather fans, here is where your fun begins. The coldest air of the season will likely rush into the Deep South by Monday. Monday will likely feature morning temperatures in the 50's, with readings falling into the 40's by afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be cold, with highs in the 40's. Morning lows Wednesday will fall into the upper teens.

* HMMMMMM...I notice that the 0z GFS hints at the potential for a winter storm somewhere in northern Mississippi/Alabama around Dec. 7/8. Let me say up front that I am not forecasting snow for us - it's simply too far out to try and get specific. But, I will also say that the pattern is favorable for SOME part of the Deep South to have at least the threat of a winter storm. And, should the next few model runs show this potential threat, I will amend our forecast. In my mind, the threat of snow is not based only on one model run, but rather several factors:

The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation are both negative, which usually correlates to a cold airmass in the eastern U.S. Also, the SOI has been running negative for much of the last month, which means we will have a larger than normal influence from the subtropical jet. Not to oversimplify, but cold air + moisture can often lead to some fun around here.

We'll continue to eye the latest data, and will update this space...

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 11:30 PM