Twin States Weather Blog

Back in the Saddle

* I hope you all had a nice holiday weekend. I was fortunate enough to see some family and eat some great food this weekend. However, I was unfortunate enough to come down with some kind of sinus crud. With the help of plenty of orange juice, I'm better by the minute. But, enough with the weekend wrap and medical report, we have some real weather issues to confront this Monday morning.

* Be sure to scroll down and read Renny's excellent discussion. His appraisal of the situation is spot on, so I'll only add a few details...

We expect supercells to form across eastern Mississippi later this morning. These will likely be rotating supercells, with the potential for some tornadoes. The highest tornado threat will come across west Alabama.

After the supercells move out, a squall line will sweep from west to east across MS and AL. Damaging winds will be possible within this line, with an isolated tornado also not out of the question.

This potential event is all about TIMING. Exactly when the best upper level support moves overhead will play a huge role in the evolution of this event. Another timing issue will be exactly when the forcing arrives. If it arrives during daylight hours (and we are seeing some sunshine), then things could go from bad to worse in a hurry.

* The new SPC Day 1 Outlook shows a MDT risk for much of central Alabama. The guys at SPC do great work, but the opinion of our weather office is that this MDT risk should be extended further west and include much of our area - especially along and east of U.S. Highway 45. That's not a knock on the SPC, we just happen to disagree. And, we do not think today is a day to lessen our attention on the severe weather potential.

* The bottom line is that today is a day you should stay close to a good source of weather information. I'm going to get a quick power nap, but will update the weblog later this morning with more information...

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 1:13 AM