Friday, April 07, 2006

Morning Update

* I have been reviewing the latest data, and the thinking is still unchanged. Today will likely be an active weather day, with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The best chance of tornadoes will likely come along and north of U.S. Highway 80, but they certainly can't be ruled out farther south.

* Please note that we say this will "likely" be an active weather day. It's also possible, but not likely, that this could bust and little or nothing will happen. That seems rather unlikely, but it is possible. And, it's the scenario for which I personally vote.

* Dewpoints have surged into the middle 60's - those will not be a problem today. A review of area soundings shows fairly ominous upper air data out of Jackson. A key today will be the area with the greatest shear in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Local boundaries will play a big role in enhancing that shear. Right now, there are two boundaries draped across the Southeast. One that runs across north Mississippi and north Alabama, and another, weaker boundary that runs roughly from Natchez to Meridian to Birmingham. I'll post an image of these boundaries in a few minutes, so you can see them for yourself...

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