Noon Thoughts
* My thinking on the severe weather event tomorrow is mostly unchanged. The 12z (morning) computer model guidance is in, and it looks remarkably consistent to the runs from yesterday.* We've been busy with IM coordination conferences today. Here are some highlights of our conference with NWS Jackson:
We have a local tornado outbreak checklists that goes from 0-84 on a point system. This comes up with 73 at KJAN. It uses historic KJAN upper air data for tornado outbreaksin the CWA. Doesn't help specify area, just that big severe can occur in CWA. Obviously area north of I-20 looks most favorable but we shall see. May be capped in SE MS given 8.5 c/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, at least during the day.
* The evidence still suggests that the worst of it will likely come north of U.S. Highway 80, as discussed early this morning.
* The new SPC Day 2 Outlook should be issued soon...I will post it as soon as it is available...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 12:06 PM
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