Twin States Weather Blog

Potentially A Big One...

* After reviewing the 0z (Evening) model suite, our thinking remains unchanged. We anticipate a powerful band of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. These thunderstorms will likely contain widespread strong and damaging winds of 50-60 mph. Anyone who lives in a mobile home should try to make arrangements to spend the day elsewhere. If you can't leave, make sure your mobile home is securely tied down.

* The million dollar question is: Do supercell thunderstorms develop ahead of the squall line? If they do, they will likely rotate because of the high shear values present. They would have the potential to produce tornadoes, some of which could be fairly powerful. Unfortunately, we will only be able to answer this question tomorrow. The key things to watch for are sunshine and the 60-65 degree dewpoints - if we get both of those, we could really have a day to remember.

* Here's the rundown of our thinking:

Timing: Supercells (if they develop) 10:00 am-2:00 pm....Squall line 2:00 pm-7:00 pm

Threats: Supercells would produce damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes. The squall line has the potential to produce large swaths of damaging wind. This is the most significant threat at this time.

Location: All of our area will be under the gun.

What YOU Should Do:

Stay close to a good source of weather information. IF you live in a mobile home, make arrangments to spend the day tomorrow elsewhere. It will be safe for you to return tomorrow night, no later than 10pm.

If you are going to be driving a high profile vehicle, exercise extreme caution and be prepared for gusts of wind - even outside of thunderstorms.

PARENTS: If your child is at a school and severe weather breaks out, DO NOT GO GET YOUR CHILDREN. They are in a relatively safe place at the school, and would be in the worst place you can be - a car. I know you have concern, but schools are very prepared for severe weather. Statistically, they are much more likely to be harmed in a car than in a vehicle.

* That's all for now. I will post again just after midnight with the latest guidance from the Storm Prediction Center. Be sure to watch Charles' forecast tomorrow on Good Morning Meridian. Also, I will be joining Bill Smith and the crew at WMOX tomorrow morning to discuss the severe weather situation. We'll be fully staffed tomorrow and will keep you well informed about approaching severe weather!

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 9:24 PM