Severe Weather Threat
* Good Sunday morning! What a beautiful start to the day with ample sunshine and cool but comfortable temperatures. It would be a perfect day for a round of golf but I think the plate will be too full to get a few swings in today...* I'm starting to get very intrigued/concerned about severe weather on Thursday. As we always mention, past three days or so you start to wonder how the models will handle certain situations. But the fact that run after run of the GFS is showing the same feature over and over really increases confidence that something will happen. Through each run yesterday and this morning, the very strong shortwave trough has been further and further south. Each move southward increases our chances of a severe weather episode. I really get the idea that the Gulf will open up for several days in advance of the system, and the GFS is spitting out lows like candy. The one we are interested in is the Thursday time frame as the best upper level dynamics and surface low pass through. Yesterday I was thinking the Arkansas Delta and Mississippi Delta had the best threat, but watching the dynamics shift south has me concerned. I have noticed past events tend to bring dynamics south, before the closer runs bring it back north so we'll see what happens in future runs.
* Nonetheless, it looks like somewhere close to here will see a significant severe weather event. And as one presenter mentioned yesterday, the Deep South is long past due for a big time spring severe weather event and we are getting into that time of year again. Early indications (again, several days away) would suggest that a very strong squall line is possible with a few discrete supercells ahead of it. It is nearly impossible to speculate timing and pinpoint locations right now, but just know this is something we are keeping a watchful eye on and will begin to narrow things down throughout the week!
posted by Renny Vandewege @ 10:24 AM
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