Twin States Weather Blog

Thursday Severe Weather Threat

* We are continuing Instant Messaging conferencing with various weather entities across the Southeast this morning...Now would be a good time to provide an update in our thinking about exactly what may transpire tomorrow.

* An intense upper trough will swing through the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, bringing with it a deepening surface low. These two factors will come together with very impressive wind fields to spell a large threat of severe weather for our area.

* Threats: The main problem appears to be significant wind damage associated with bowing segments of a squall line. However, if individual storms can develop ahead of this squall line, there is the potential for significant tornadoes. Hail is a secondary concern.

* Timing: The squall line will likely affect our area between 2:00pm and 8:00pm. However, please keep in mind that should any storms develop ahead of this line, they would affect us earlier. So, the threat of severe weather is present anytime between 8:00 am and 8:00 pm tomorrow.

* Forecast Confidence: The confidence in a squall line developing and causing wind damage is rather high. But, the confidence in the tornado threat is a bit lower due to uncertainty about how much warming we can get. If the sun is out tomorrow, the confidence in the tornado threat will grow.

* What To Do: Tomorrow is a day to stay close to a good source of weather information. If you live in a mobile home, I recommend that you make arrangements to stay elsewhere during the day tomorrow if at all possible. Perhaps a relative or a friend's home would work well. Also, today or tonight would be a good time for you and your family to discuss your severe weather safety plan - all you need is a way to get warnings, and a safe place in your home (basement or lowest floor - interior bathroom, hallway, or closet).

* I will conduct an internal IM conference for our EMA partners today at 3:00 pm - if you are an EMA official and would like to participate, e-mail me at josh.johnson@wtok.com. I will post an updated version of our thoughts here later this afternoon.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 10:19 AM