Thursday Threat
* First, the next couple of days look fantastic...Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures headline our forecast for tomorrow and Wednesday. But, big changes arrive Thursday...* Our computer model guidance suggests than an upper trough will swing through the south-central Plains, bringing a surface low through Missouri and into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of this system, strong southerly flow will bring in a warm and moist airmass. Exactly how much of this unstable airmass can move into our area remains unanswered, but we believe it will be enough to fuel some powerful thunderstorms.
* Here's our thinking on the evolution of things: A powerful squall line will form west of the Mississippi River early Thursday morning. Ahead of this line, there is some potential for discrete supercell thunderstorms to form. If that occurs, our tornado threat will be enhanced. Regardless, the line will race through Thursday afternoon, bringing a widespread threat of damaging winds to our area.
* The significant and most noticeable part of this setup is the screaming low-level jet. Model forecasts indicate that the winds around 5,000 feet above the ground could be on the order of 60-80 knots!! Wind shear looks ample - in fact, there may be TOO much wind shear. When shear gets too high, thunderstorms are often toppled by the powerful winds above the ground.
* The bottom line right now is that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this event. However, there is growing evidence to support a threat of a significant severe weather episode across the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday. Now is a good time to check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio. If you don't have a weather radio, they are available for purchase at many local consumer electronics stores.
* The rest of March looks active. As our good friend Alan Gerard (Meteorologist-In-Charge, NWS Jackson) noted at the Symposium this weekend, we have not had a significant outbreak of severe weather in March in a long time. Sure seems like we may be overdue.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:41 PM
2 Comments:
I know that I couldn't have seen this, but I think I saw a tornado warning somewhere way up north. Their temp was in the 30's though. Is that wrong or did I really see that?
It was probably a test tornado warning...Several NWS offices across the northern part of the country are doing tests today.
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