Strong Storms Tonight:
* Good morning... a very early good morning. My clock has 3:10 here at the station so its safe to say I am well up before the chickens! Fun aside lets talk about tonight's storm threat.
* New SPC Day 1 outlook shows no change from my posting last night. Its still has all of our area under a slight risk for severe weather. As you've noticed I have added the probability outlooks and it appears wind damage (30%) and hail (15%) are the main threats for our area. However an isolated tornado is not out of the question.
* Timing: The 0Z (last night's run) brings the line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms into our western viewing area around 6Z (1:00 AM Thursday CDT) and to the US 45 and AL Hwy. 17 corridor around 12Z (7:00 AM). Models still show some activity, mostly in our West Alabama counties around 18Z (1:00PM),
* Rainfall: I will admit I am bad about just looking at the GFS models only and not the others at times. Based on the GFS, rain estimates vary from as low as 0.25" to 0.75" and the model is still hinting the heavier rain off to our west and north for the most part. We could see higher totals with the stronger storms. Trent noted in an email this morning to me that he looked at the NAM model which paints rain totals from 0.50" to 1.00" for East Mississippi and West Alabama. I like his numbers better because it means more main and that is something we do need.
* Heading toward the weekend... the GFS is painting a slight chance of rain for Saturday mostly to the north of our area but there may be enought to squeeze out a shower north of US 80. I haven't put my forecast package together yet... as I am looking at the models and sharing my thoughts those of you reading this. Yesterday the model had the rain over most of Mississippi and I opted to leave it out. With the model taking it more northward I may do the same today.
* The month looks to end on a dry and warm note with a high centering right over the Twin States. Models suggest we return to a somewhat wet pattern around May 3-9th with rain chances each day. Of course I will admit again that far out on these long range models is "voodoo land." Yesterday the models showed no rain chances until May 7th... just to make a comparison.
* More on the forecast from 5:30 - 7:00 AM on Good Morning Meridian. I'm heading to Newton County later this morning to speak to some youngsters in Decatur about weather. Trent will be back in tonight at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 with the newest weather information on the storm threat.
* Have yourself a great Wednesday...
Labels: Forecast Discussion
posted by Chris Whited @ 3:10 AM
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