Twin States Weather Blog

Severe Weather Threat Update:

* Day 2 SPC Outlook has not changed much since this morning. SPC still maintains a Moderate Risk roughly along I-59 from Hattiesburg to Meridian and along US 80 from Meridian to Demopolis to Montgomery and all points south of that line. The rest of our area North of US 80 is under a slight risk.

* Jackson NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook:

...THUNDERSTORMS...

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING WESTERNPORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EVENTUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THE LEADING EDGEOF A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. FROMTHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

WHILE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILLBE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THIS TIME...THEGREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE OVER AREAS LOCATED ALONG ANDSOUTH OF A JONESVILLE LOUISIANA TO VICKSBURG MISSISSIPPI TOCANTON TO DE KALB LINE WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS EXPECTED

....FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOKAREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ANDINCREASE IN COVERAGE...AND LATER ORGANIZE INTO A COMPLEX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCHOF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COMPLEX MOVES INTO EAST ANDSOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAYAFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ANDSLOWS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER THESE AREAS. LOCALLY HIGHERAMOUNTS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF STORMS BEGIN TOMOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.

* I just got into the station here so once I get a look at the models and get my forecast package put together, I'll give a more detailed synopsis of the storm event. More of course on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and 6:00...

Labels: Forecast Discussion

posted by Chris Whited @ 3:50 PM