Moderate Risk For Severe Weather Saturday
* Good morning... I'm usually in bed right now but since I am fighting insomnia and awake I noticed the new Day 2 Outlook from the SPC is out and is still painting an active Saturday for severe weather for the Twin States.
* All of our viewing are is under a slight risk area of severe weather but a moderate risk is in place for the southern part of our viewing area. The moderate risk area runs roughly Along Interstate 59 from Hattiesburg to Meridian to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham and points south and southeast of that line.
* Notes from the SPC Outlook:
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS INITIALLY FORECAST OVER* I'll have more on the threat later this morning on Good Morning Meridian as well as on the blog this afternoon and tonight on Newscenter 11 at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00
THE MS DELTA REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
INTO SERN TX. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME...WHILE IT AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN MORE RAPIDLY...WHILE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST STATES TO VA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...THE SOUTHEAST...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM
WRN MS SWWD TO SWRN LA. MEANWHILE...BROAD REGION OF SLY
SURFACE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTING RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE NWD OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THOUGH
WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR WARM
SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...MID 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS SPREADING
ACROSS THE SRN HALVES OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY MIDDAY COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN THE LINEAR COMPLEX ALONG/AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LEAD
MID-LEVEL FEATURE.
THOUGH MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE W OF THE SURFACE FRONT...STRONG SWLY
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD BENEATH DIFFLUENT 60 TO 70 KT SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE IT APPEARS
THAT FLOW FROM ROUGHLY 850 MB AND ABOVE WILL BE ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO SWLY AT 850 MB
SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- PARTICULARLY WITH
SWD EXTENT TOWARD THE GULF COAST -- AS WELL AS THE OVERALL
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
Labels: Forecast Discussion
posted by Chris Whited @ 3:03 AM
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