Twin States Weather Blog

Ernesto Update

* Sure looks like Ernesto is on its way to becoming our first major hurricane of the season. Here are the latest numbers from NHC:

Location:
15.1 N
71.2 W
About 420 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica

Strength:
Winds: 50 mph
Pressure: 997 mb

Movement is WNW at 14 mph.

* Our forecast hasn't changed much - Ernesto will get into the Gulf of Mexico early next week, and will likely become a major hurricane. It will move over the Loop Current, a region of warm water in the central Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, upper level winds are forecast to be light, which should allow Ernesto to intensify, perhaps rapidly, early next week.

* The forecast track guidance is troubling, but I want to stress that this is not written in stone. Computer model guidance can and does shift - in fact, guidance last year suggested Katrina would turn into Florida, so it can be quite wrong. But, there is growing evidence that Ernesto could pose a substantial threat to the northern Gulf coast late next week.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 12:01 PM