Tropical Storm Ernesto
* Ernesto has been born today in the Caribbean Sea. This has the *potential* to become a fairly significant hurricane. The key question is whether Ernesto's circulation can survive some pretty intense shear over the next 24-36 hours. IF it does, the environment from then on will be fairly conducive for development.* IF Ernesto survives, it has the potential to become a very intense hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures down there are extremely warm, and shear is forecast to be rather light. So, Ernesto will be one to watch.
* TRACK: We are fairly confident Ernesto will continue through the western Caribbean and come out somewhere in the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week. From there, it's a guessing game. Bottom line is that everyone from Brownsville to Tampa needs to watch this one closely.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 6:39 PM
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