* While there is certainly a threat of severe weather, the WORST of the weather should stay north of here, where the more favorable upper-level dynamics exist. I spent some time this afternoon doing some research on late season severe weather events. In almost each of the November severe weather episodes of the last several years, there have been very strong wind fields aloft. That belt of strongest winds is forecast to be from Missouri to Michigan, which would indicate that the worst of the severe weather threat should stay there.
* However, there is enough instability forecast to bring a round of showers and thunderstorms through here tomorrow. Any supercells that form should do so in the afternoon hours, followed by a strong line of thunderstorms tomorrow night. The main threat will come in the form of damaging winds, but directional shear values suggest that there could be a few tornadoes.
* This is one of those "borderline" events that really give us weather forecasters fits. While the instability and directional shear seem sufficient for severe weather, the speed shear in the atmosphere seems to be lacking.
* BUT...We all know how quickly these things can change. And, again, I'd like to reiterate that NOW is the time to check the batteries in your NOAA weather radio. Also, if you do not own a NOAA weather radio, now is the time to buy one. They are available as a fairly inexpensive purchase at any consumer electronics store.
* I will post again this evening after the 0z (6pm) model guidance comes in, sometime between 10-11pm.
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:22 PM
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