Sunday, November 13, 2005

Rain and Storms

* Just getting my computer back online. My laptop decided to flake out on me this weekend, and I've been trying to get all of my programs and things back in line...We have a LOT of weather on the plate, so I'll try to hit the highlights over the next week or so.

* It sure looks like we are going to get some beneficial rain during the next 48 hours. The extracted output from the NAM forecasts 0.90" of rain between now and midnight Tuesday night - hopefully we can get that much.

* It's also worth noting that the NAM brings our CAPE (instability) up over 800 J/kg, with a negative LI - both of these indicate atmospheric instability and the potential for thunderstorms - some of these could be strong or severe. But, it really seems that the best upper level dynamics will be north of here. Be sure to scroll down for a great discussion by Renny Vandewege regarding the forecast - a very in-depth look at what we're expecting. Here's a great basic primer on some of the severe weather indices that Renny used:

http://www.e-falk.com/wx/thunderstorms.php


* MUCH cooler air will arrive by Wednesday. Highs will likely stay in the upper 50's and lower 60's through the weekend. The cool shot will not be extremely chilly, but should keep us near seasonable temperatures.

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