Sunday, September 18, 2005

TS Rita

Tropical Storm Rita has formed in the Atlantic with winds of 40 mph. It is moving westward. While a direct landfall in Florida does not appear to be the case, Rita will move close enough to the keys that Hurricane Watches have been issued for there and for Cuba.

I have increasing concerns for people on the western Gulf Coast. Rita will be encountering a very favorable environment for rapid intensification and should become a hurricane in the next day or two. Once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico it should continue to move west for several days.

Our weather is going to get hot the next few days, and while most of us are looking for cooler weather, this warming trend could be a blessing. The warmth will come from a "heat bubble" high pressure system that will settle on top of us for a few days. As we've mentioned during previous tropical activity, high pressure systems act as a "buffer" to steer tropical systems around them. In this particular situation, Rita should move around the periphery of the high towards the Texas or Mexican coast. As we always mention, however, tropical systems are difficult to forecast so we will be watching this system very closely over the next several days which will allow us to refine our forecast.

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