Mid-Morning Update
* Online conferencing continuing this morning...New data continuing to roll in from the 12z model runs...Thinking hasn't changed much:..Katrina will make landfall somewhere between Morgan City, Louisiana and Mobile, Alabama. The most likely position seems to be southeastern Louisiana. From there, it will move inland, bringing destructive winds and heavy rains to much of our area. The potential exists for widespread and lengthy power outages.
..Our confidence is growing that this will be a very significant event for east Mississippi and west Alabama - possibly on the same scale as what Ivan brought to our area. Please prepare today for power outages - have plenty of water, batteries, flashlights, and non-perishable food items at hand..
..10am update from NHC will not change the track much, perhaps a slight shift to the east once inland. They bring the center in over New Orleans and then northward to near Kosciusko..At that point, the storm is forecast to have sustained winds near 70mph and gusts to near 90 mph. There is still plenty of uncertainty, but things are starting to point to a LA/MS direct hit..
..Landfall is forecast to occur sometime Monday morning, with the worst of it around here coming during Monday and into Monday night and early Tuesday morning. The timing will also likely be adjusted as we get closer to landfall..
..If the NHC track verifies, almost all of east Mississippi and west Alabama will be on the dangerous eastern side of the storm. The eastern side brings the worst wind and often is accompanied by tornadoes..
..While nothing is written in stone yet, I want to emphasize that this has the potential to bring life-threatening weather to much of our area. Please continue to prepare today and tomorrow..
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 9:16 AM
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