Nice Beach Trip
* Just getting back into the swing of things after vacationing along the Alabama Gulf Coast last week. For those who are curious, the area has undergone a remarkable recovery since Hurricane Ivan struck in September 2004...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:34 PM
10 Comments:
this is kinda off-topic but i just have to say that i love how the hurricane center or whatever has now decided to take the # of expected storms this year down and call it a mild season. especially now that this season is almost OVER. what kind of a prediction is that? oooo global warming...this trend will continue for 20 years...whatever.
Nice photos, Josh.
Well...we are just getting into the swing of the season right now. If you recall, Hurricane Andrew, the first named storm of the 1992 season, occured in late August. While the number of storms will be less this year, I wouldn't completely write off a few strong tropical systems.
yeah but after all the big blowup they made about this year saying that this year would be way above average like last year. Then get right down to the end after we've already seen what its gonna do and decide it'll be a mild season? that's not a prediction...that's an observation.
anonymous,
You raise several concerns. First, your tone is a little sarcastic and sounds like a fourteen year old child.
Let's face it, it is childish to think the hurricane season is "almost over". We're "almost" to the halfway mark.
Secondly, saying the revision from the NHC reflects "a mild season" is incorrect. Reading from the NOAA News Website one can easily find the release from the Hurricane Center dated August 8, 2006 with the following, "This forecast is slightly lower than the outlook issued in May, but remains above the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes".
You saw it correctly- above average.. Where does it say mild? It doesn't...
Third, you couldn't be further off base that this comment. "yeah but after all the big blowup they made about this year saying that this year would be way above average like last year."
Again, not true. I found the May outlook on the Climate Prediction Center website. In the second paragraph, last sentence it states, "However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season".
I think this is a classic example of opening your mouth and letting junk come out of it. Stay on the sidelines or come with a better game- kid. That's my observation.
Oooo...Looks like I struck somebody's nerve. Now who looks like the 14 year old? You're getting offended by something that wasn't even directed at you. Now first of all, what I said about a mild season is correct...where did I see it? I didn't see it anywhere, but I did HEAR it by some hurricane expert on The Weather Channel. Now I'll stay in this "game" because I know I am right.
Your very good friend,
Kenny
Kenny,
A kind word of advice...Don't believe everything you hear on TV. And, when you debate, be sure to make an effort to have legitimate scientific research to back up your claims, not just what was heard on TV. I do commend your passion for weather, keep it up and keep trying to learn!
The NOAA forecast has been revised downward because the season hasn't produced much to this point.
That's fairly typical for very active seasons: a significant period of inactivity, followed by a 4-6 week period of frequent activity.
I'm not saying that's going to happen. In my opinion, we will end up having a close to average season from a numbers standpoint.
My fear is that due to the lack of storms and upwelling, the water is undisturbed and VERY warm. So, while I don't think we'll have an extreme NUMBER of hurricanes, I do think the ones that form could be very, very significant.
The bottom line is this: seasonal hurricane forecasting has little skill beyond "average", "above average", and "below average".
Off topic, but as of this writing (6:51 pm), we are having some frequent and very loud THUNDER in downtown...
Once again and true to form Kenny, not true. I wasn't offended or upset by you comments. If anything I took what you said, deconstructed it and exposed it. Good or bad, you have now supplied a source. Even though it IS the weather channel, it's a start.
That's what's called a good debate among adults. I would call it an argument, but that would conjure up the idea that I'm mad- which is totally untrue.
Anywho, don't look now but this "mild" tropical season could heat up in a few days with the low off the Carolina coast, convection in the Gulf, and a strong wave moving away from Africa. That's three possibilities in less than a week- sounds active to me.
Dude, do you even know what you're talking about because I don't think you do. At one point I thought you were fairly intelligent on the subject, but after all that jibberish you just put on here, I'm starting to think otherwise. Anyway, I think we should stop leaving comments on this thing, if you have anything else to say my email is haha04608@yahoo.com. As far as I'm concerned, though, this conversation is over. I know what I heard and nothing you can say will sway me. Even if many hurricanes form now, they still changed their forecast, and any way it goes now, they will still be wrong. That is my only point. If you have any response to this, email me at that address.
I think we finally agree; this conversation is over. Anyway, the verdict is in- you're psycho.
It's impossible to have an educated conversation with someone who's getting bent out of shape and will not listen to another side. You say they changed their forecast. I believe they fine tuned it. That's long range forecasting for you. You say tomat-o, I say tom-ato.
I'd love for you to challenge yourself by forecasting months in advance and see how it ends up. Besides saying it'll be cold in January and hot in July, it's tougher than you may think.
So, take it easy Kenny. Go back to watching Monday Night Raw, voting Republican, and working 9-5. The sun will rise in the east tomorrow and set in the west. But as for emailing you, there is not a chance. I'd rather converse with a purpose and you are a waste of my time.
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