Twin States Weather Blog

Moderate Risk

* As advertised, it's time to talk a little severe weather. I figured I would wait until the new Day 1 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center came out so we could do a little comparing/contrasting. Feel free to check out that forecast by clicking the link below. I will be mentioning several things about that forecast

SPC Day 1 Outlook

* As you can see, we are under a "moderate risk" for severe weather. The one type of severe weather that sticks out is the probability for tornadoes. The forecaster mentions the threat of long track and significant tornadoes a possibility in the moderate risk area. You'll note that the moderate risk area is basically centered around our viewing area

* Our forecast is close to that, but just a little bit south of there. I do agree that there can be some intense supercells and tornadoes. Recent research from Justyn Jackson at Mississippi State suggests that tornadoes in the Deep South (specifically significant tornadoes) depend more on shear than instability. There will be an incredible amount of shear tomorrow, so it is conceivable that if storms go they will likely rotate. The fact of the matter is that we will need some form of instability to go along with the shear and that will come south of the warm front. Where will the front set up? That, my friends, is the million dollar question. The SPC is a firm believer that it will set up somewhere near the Natchez Trace and the NWS in JAN is going with that too. It will be interesting to see what role the on going MCS will have on things tomorrow. That could help enhance the front and bring it north of I-20. Right now, we'll stick with I-20 but we may revise that if it looks like the front will move on north of there. As of tonight it looks like the front is having a hard time moving north.

* What does all this mean? We should all pay attention to the weather. The front could easily race northward and line up with the SPC's prediction and we could all be under the gun. The best idea here to be prepared in the event we have severe weather. Review your severe weather action plan and check the batteries in your NOAA weather radio.

* A lot of severe weather requires NOWcasting rather than forecasting. This simply means that we have to see what satellites show in the morning and where the front is located and things like that. Once we can evaluate how our computer models are handling the situation, we can go from there. Be sure to check this blog frequently tomorrow as well as watch Charles Daniel and Josh Johnson who will be here all day. I will be taking my written comprehensive exams for my Masters Degree as well as trying to keep an eye on things!

posted by Renny Vandewege @ 12:02 AM