Tuesday, October 18, 2005

Wilma a Hurricane...

* The historic 2005 hurricane season continues to amaze. We now have Hurricane Wilma in the western Caribbean Sea. This marks the 21st named storm of the year, which ties 1933 as the most active year on record. Also, this is the 12th hurricane of the year, which ties 1969 as the year with the highest number of hurricanes.

* Wilma has sustained winds at 80 mph, which makes it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is forecast to become a major hurricane over the next few days in the western Caribbean. Computer model guidance suggests that the storm will pass through the Yucatan channel and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. From there, the forecast track takes it to the southern Florida peninsula, between Tampa and Miami. Again, this forecast is not written in stone, but the threat for the northern Gulf coast is very, very small.

* What a warm day! Temperatures as of this writing are in the middle 80's across most of Mississippi and west Alabama. The good news is that dewpoint values are running in the 50's, which means that our air is not terribly humid.

* After a few warm days ahead, it seems that we will cool off quite a bit by the weekend. A very deep upper low will be in place over the Ohio Valley, which would funnel some pretty chilly air in here by Saturday and Sunday. The exact position and timing of this upper low is still being debated by the computer models, so the magnitude of the cool air for the weekend is in question. We'll refine the forecast in coming days.

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