Twin States Weather Blog

Storms Likely This Weekend

* A difficult and unsettled forecast is shaping up over the weekend. A surface low will form under a deep, phased upper trough and track from the southern Plains towards the mid-Mississippi Valley. The upper wind fields are supportive of severe thunderstorms, but the amount of instability available remains uncertain. We must note that the NAM brings surface dewpoints up above 65, which suggests that there will be plenty of warm, moist air near the surface.

* I get the idea that this weekend will offer up plenty of surprises and changes to the forecast. Systems like these are notoriously hard to time - so we may be adjusting the expected timeframe of thunderstorm chances. If instability can get high enough, we will be dealing with some severe weather issues when the thunderstorms push through.

* All of that being said, this is a very active weekend...We have the Jimmie Rodgers Days in downtown tomorrow night and Saturday, and the big NASCAR race at Talladega, AL is this Sunday. So, we'll try to be as specific as possible...Just know that adjustments will likely be made to this forecast, so check back often:

* TOMORROW: Looks dry and warm. Highs near 80, plenty of sun.

* TOMORROW NIGHT: Clouds gradually increase. We will be dry for the big Jeff Bates concert in downtown Friday night.

* SATURDAY: Showers and thunderstorms will overspread our area by late afternoon and lasting through much of Saturday night. Some of the storms could be severe, and heavy rainfall seems likely in many places. I would imagine some places will pick up well over one inch of rain.

* SUNDAY: Rain and thunderstorms are possible for the first half of the day, but we should begin to see the rain taper to showers by early afternoon Sunday.

* Big thanks to Rachael Clatterbuck from Northeast Elementary...She was at the station today and completed a job shadow assignment with me...She helped build some graphics and even did a weathercast on tape! Fun stuff.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 2:25 PM