Twin States Weather Blog

Wild Weather

* Quite an interesting forecast is shaping up for the next 3 days as we continue with a highly amplified, progressive pattern. A large trough is taking form across the western US. As it moves eastward, it will strengthen and deepen. Ahead of it, a large transport of moisture will return through a large depth of the atmosphere, which will aid in heavy rain fall with the thunderstorms we expect to develop.

* The first round arrives on Monday with the lead shortwave embedded in the trough. A squall line should develop and push through. Heavy rain is certainly possible. There is a slight chance of severe weather, however there is a big lack in instability. If any severe weather does occur, it will likely be in the form of damaging winds. Hail and tornadoes do not look likely at this time.

* Rain continues overnight Monday and then into Tuesday as the cold front pushes through. Once again, another strong squall line should move through and heavy rain and winds look like the main concern here. Overall, we could easily pick up over 2" of rainfall. We could certainly use the rain.

* If heavy rain isn't enough, the front pushes through during the day Tuesday, but it looks like the core of the coldest air aloft won't pass until overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. That being said, the forcing caused by the passing of the strongest dynamics should be enough to touch off precipitation behind the front as we start the day Wednesday. What kind of precipitation will we see? That is the million dollar question. It is certainly possible that we could see a little mixing of rain and snow as we start the day Wednesday. Right now, accumulating snow doesn't appear in the cards. This again is several days out and we'll be continuing to watch each run of the model for tendencies before we can ultimately refine our forecast. Nevertheless, It is a wild and fun forecast -- one reason I love this job!

* Time to watch some football. Hopefully the Colts can turn this thing around. I know Heather Cook would be happy! Have a great weekend!

posted by Renny Vandewege @ 12:48 PM