Afternoon Update
* The thinking hasn't changed much since my post this morning - the stage is set for a significant episode of severe weather across Mississippi and Alabama. A very deep surface low will track across the Midsouth tonight into tomorrow, with an associated cold front. There are many factors pointing toward a significant severe weather episode:+ Shear: 0-3 KM Storm Relative Helicity values peak at around 500 J/kg...This is before the best instability arrives, however...When the greatest instability is here, the SRH is around 350 J/kg...Still plenty of shear.
+ Wind Fields: The 850 millibar (low level jet - roughly 5000' above ground) is progged to approach or exceed 50 knots tomorrow, which is more than sufficient for severe weather. Farther up in the atmosphere, winds will approach 100 knots - again, plenty of impressive dynamics are involved with this system.
+ Instability: Dewpoint values in southern Louisiana are now approaching and exceeding 70 degrees. That is some very moist and unstable air...The exact progression of the northward push of this moist air will be key. I believe we'll see dewpoint values get up above 60, setting the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms.
* More updates to come...
posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 3:05 PM
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