Twin States Weather Blog

Where Are The Storms?

* You may be asking that question...They are running behind schedule by several hours. The current axis of thunderstorms runs from roughly Monroe, Louisiana to Tupelo, MS -- the northern end is pushing east, but the southern end of that axis is not making much of an eastward push.

* Here's the million dollar question...Will additional supercells fire in advance of the slowly approaching squall line? My opinion is that it's unlikely. The sun has gone down, so we have lost our daytime heating. This will lead to lower instability but higher low level wind speeds. The lack of instability will be the key factor, because the thing keeping thunderstorms from popping is an inversion, or "cap". Right now, I just don't see us breaking the cap. But, stranger things have happened - we'll monitor it closely.

* Bottom line: While we aren't out of the woods just yet, we may end up dealing with the squall line itself rather than supercells ahead of it. This would mean a diminished tornado threat, but still a threat of some large hail. The big story is that our timing will have to be adjusted - seems like it won't arrive here until after midnight, and could linger until sunrise Saturday.

posted by WTOK Weather Staff @ 9:10 PM