Friday, March 10, 2006

First Storm Develops...

* A thunderstorm has developed in southern Mississippi, along an advancing warm/moist airmass. The thunderstorm is currently around the Walthall/Marion county line, northwest of Columbia. More storms will likely form as the front moves back northward as a warm front...Some of these could briefly be severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and maybe even a tornado possible.

* We are also under a "Slight" risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. That's the SPC forecast, but I believe the threat here is fairly small. The best chance of severe thunderstorms will come northwest of here, across the Delta and points north into the Missouri bootheel. That's not to say we won't have some thunderstorms, we probably will. And, some of them could be strong with gusty winds and small hail. We'll monitor the threat closely.

* The threat of some strong thunderstorms will increase a bit as we get into Sunday...The thing that will limit severe weather potential is the lack of any significant upper level dynamics. However, there is plenty of instability around - sort of the opposite of Thursday's event (lots of dynamics, no instability). These events often offer surprises, so we'll be watching closely...

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