Twin States Weather Blog

New WTOK Weather Blog

2007-05-23T15:27:00.000-05:00

This blog site will no longer be updated. The WTOK Weather Blog is now being hosted from a server at our station and you should update your bookmarks with this link:

http://70.89.78.165/WXBlog/pt/blog/

The blog is not gone... just has a slightly different look and a new home!

New Blog!

2007-05-16T21:29:00.000-05:00

I have just posted a new blog on the main page. Some of you were saying that you could not see the pictures, well that problem has been fixed. Tonight I discussed Wednesday's rain and the current drought status. Please check out the new blog at wtok.com, click on Inside WTOK, scroll down to blogs, and then on the right you will see weather blogs.

Current Radar/Rain Totals:

2007-05-16T06:18:00.000-05:00

(Click on image to enlarge and refresh the page for the radar to update)

* Scattered thunderstorms continue across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this morning and will continue to develop as the cold front moves in from the east.

* As of 8:00 AM:

Meridian - Key Field: 1.99"

NAS Meridian - McCain Field: 1.07"

* Feel free to share your rain totals with everyone. Leave your rain totals in our comment section!

Heavy Rain Over Eastern Mississippi:

2007-05-16T04:20:00.000-05:00

* A band of thunderstorms this morning will move out of Eastern Mississippi and into Western Alabama. Nothing severe with these storms but we are getting a nice soaking of these storms. Nice to hear that rain pounding against the roof here in the studio downtown at WTOK. Be careful out and about this morning as water will pond on some of the roadways in downtown Meridian and across the Twin States.

* We are expecting another round of showers and storms later today as the cold front moves across Mississippi and Alabama

New Blog!

2007-05-15T21:29:00.000-05:00

Per upper management we will be posting blogs at a separate location, and this current blog will be completely removed from the website. The new blogs are easy to find. Just go the the main page wtok.com and click on Inside WTOK, from there select the blog option. You should be able to see different blogs posted by different departments, and of course our blog is located under WTOK Weather Blogs. From now on, I will be posting at this link. Thanks for reading.

RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY!

2007-05-15T17:20:00.000-05:00

During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving through East Mississippi and West Alabama which brings good and bad news. I like being positive so let's start with the good news. This cold front will be bringing decent rain chances to the area; furthermore, I am forecasting at least 60% coverage. So with 60% coverage, some folks may see little or no rain but we will take what we get. A few storms may briefly become strong to severe; however, those should be isolated. A few storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall; however, this event will not be a drought buster, and rain does not return to the forecast again until the middle to end of next week. Now for the bad news; if we do not get at least some decent rain amounts across the area Thursday will pose a fairly high fire threat. On Thursday, humidity across the area will be considerably lower behind the cold front; furthermore, combine that with very breezy northerly winds at 10-20 miles per hour and you have got a high fire danger. Now Meridian is under a burn ban so of course you can't burn inside the city; however, you need to exercise extreme caution even if your area is not under any kind of ban. My advice for the next few days, just stay away from outside burning.

Also of note, East Mississippi and West Alabama are now experiencing an extreme drought which is one category worse than the severe drought we were experiencing. I will have more on this in tomorrow's blog.

God Bless

More Smoky Haze & Isolated PM Storms Today:

2007-05-15T04:39:00.000-05:00

* Very warm and humid this morning as I write this about 4:40AM... The haze has stuck with us all night and it has mixed with fog this morning so be careful out and about this morning.

* We are expecting another day of that smoky haze just like we saw on Monday across the Twin States with partly cloudy skies. Again with daytime heating we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms pop by late afternoon across the area. These storms form, don't move much, rain themselves out and send out mini-outflow boundaries, and another storm will pop. These storms can pulse up to briefly be severe but usually quickly weaken. (Just like the storm in Smith County yesterday)

* Still watching the progression of a cold front working southward toward Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms for the Twin States. At the moment, the models show a band along the front moving through both states and arriving around our area by the middle of the afternoon. Models indicate rain amounts of around 0.25 to 0.50". There will be a slight cool down behind the front with highs dropping into the lower 80s by late week and the weekend and upper 40s by Friday and Saturday morning.

* Models are showing another frontal boundary stalling out across the Twin States around the 24th of the Month which could bring another round of some showers and a few thunderstorms.

* Drought: Crunching the numbers this morning show we are -2.26" of rain for the month of May and we are still hurting at -16.52" for the year so far. The US Drought Monitor and the Palmer Drought Severity Index still place the Twin States area under a severe stage drought.

* Fire Danger: The cooler air behind the front will lower relative humidities so the fire danger will be elevated into the weekend. A reminder as Newscenter 11 reported yesterday, the city of Meridian has been once again placed under a burn ban.

* Tropics: The GFS long range model out about 16 days (around the 30th of May) still shows a "system" in the South Central Gulf of Mexico. The last few model runs have been persistent in showing this feature. Of course I still note that far out on these forecast models is "voodoo land" and will probably change... but having said that, it will be something to watch the next week or so to see if models hold onto this "system." Interesting to note, this comes about the time we get ready to officially start the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June 1). If the system were to develop (pending no other formations prior to that) it would take the "B" name on the list which this year is "Barry."

* More on the forecast here in a little less than an hour on Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition and the normal Good Morning Meridian. Trent Hughes is back tonight with the evening shows at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00.

Current Local Radar:

2007-05-14T17:55:00.000-05:00

(Click on image to enlarge and refresh the page for the radar to update)

* Scattered thunderstorms continue across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this late afternoon and evening. These storms should begin to end after sunset.

Smith Co. T-Storm Warning Cancelled:

2007-05-14T17:50:00.000-05:00

* The Severe T-Storm Warning for Smith County has been cancelled. The NWS indicates the storm has weakened below severe limits....

Severe T-Storm Warning: Smith County

2007-05-14T17:16:00.000-05:00

* The NWS in Jackson has issued a Sever Thunderstorm Warning until 6:15 PM for Smith County in Central Mississippi

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0705142210.wuus54.html

A severe thunderstorm was near Raleigh moving northwest at 10 mph. The storm will affect Raleigh, Burns, and White Oak.

Mixed Bag In The Weather...

2007-05-14T16:30:00.000-05:00

... with a smoke and haze, a cold front with some rain chances, elevated fire danger later at the end of the week and weekend and "Barry" possibly forming in the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico late this month...

* A lot happening today in the weather. As I right this at around 4:30 isolated storms have popped in spots across Eastern and Central Mississippi and Western Alabama. These will pop up and not move much and will rain themselves out.

* Smoke/Hazy: Surface winds are blowing from the southeast and east (see my blog below) and are pulling smoke from the fires in South Georgia and Northern Florida over into our part of the world. Southeasterly winds will continue to pull smoke from the wildfires over Southern Georgia and Alabama into Eastern & Southeastern Mississippi and Western and Southwestern Alabama until the front kicks our winds to the north later this week. The smoke will cause very hazy conditions across the Twin States. There is a very slight chance of an isolated afternoon storm today.

* Cold front and somewhat better rain chances: A moderate cold front will work southward toward Mississippi and Alabama Wednesday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms for the Twin States. At the moment, the models show a band along the front moving through both states and arriving around our area by the middle of the afternoon. There will be a slight cool down behind the front for the end of the week and weekend as the front will bring relative humidity down. This also will increase the fire danger threat for the late week and weekend. Models indicate rains from around 0.25 to 0.50"...

* Fire Danger: Despite the rain chances for midweek, cooler and dryer air will move into the Twin States late week and this weekend and will dry out the moisture that fell and lower relative humidities so the fire danger will be elevated. I should note the city of Meridian has once again been placed under a burn ban (see the news section of http://www.wtok.com)

* Tropics: If you read my blog from this morning about a "system" at the end of the month... not much chance. The GFS 12Z model still shows a system of some sort moving into the Southern Gulf of Mexico around the 29th and 30th of the month. Models have this feature moving northward right now. I will say we don't want to see anything major but a tropical depression with some good heavy rain would really make a dent in the severe drought for our area. I will note that models this far out are out in "voodoo land or the weather boonies" so it will be interesting to watch how this pans out. You can check things out to by checking out the models at the NCEP website at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

The 0z and 12Z (7pm & 1PM CDT) GFS runs are the longer range models (going out 16 days). Click on the 4 panel charts and just choose a day and time in the left column. Once the page opens, surface precipitation forecasts are in the bottom left hand box of the 4 panels... just something for you to check out as well. These are the models we meteorologists look at every day for forecasting. There not always practical... but then again the science of meteorology is not either.

* We'll talk more about the forecast here in a bit on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and later at 6:00 and 10:00PM... and back bright and early from 5:30 - 7:00 AM Tuesday morning on Good Morning Meridian.

Smoke and Hazy Skies Over Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama:

2007-05-14T14:25:00.000-05:00

Afternoon Visible Satellite Image

19Z Surface Wind Contours
(Note the winds are flowing from South Georgia and North Florida across South Alabama and into Southeast, Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama.)

* Skies are very hazy and smoky over the Twin States this afternoon as you may notice if you are out and about today.

* The Mississippi Forestry Commission reports no fires in the area. The smoky and hazy skies are coming from the fires over Southern Georgia, Northern Florida, and a fire in the Florida Panhandle just across the Perdido River from Baldwin County, Alabama in Escambia County Florida... not to far from Pensacola. Winds out of the southeast this afternoon are pulling the hazy and smoke into Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama... so if you have respiratory issues you may want to remain inside this afternoon.

* Just in from the Newscenter 11 newsroom... The City of Meridian has been placed once again under a burn ban. There is more on the story on our news section of our website at www.wtok.com

Could "Barry" Be Making An Appearance Late This Month?

2007-05-14T10:12:00.000-05:00

(Click to Enlarge)

* I didn't catch this earlier this morning looking over the forecast models until I did another look later this morning. This is a snapshot of the OZ (7:00 PM last night) GFS model run. Take note of the very bottom middle of the image. If this model is accurate it shows a tropical system coming across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico toward the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. Now I will say this is at the end of the forecast model run (the GFS goes out 16 days and this is day 16 on the model) and this far out is out in the "weather boonies."

* One thing to note: This is on May 30th.... The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1st.

* Now if it were to get to tropical storm status, it would take the name of "Barry" on the list. We already saw our "A" storm "Subtropical Storm Andrea" last week that amounted to nothing.

* Just something interesting to keep an eye on the next few weeks. I'll have to see if the 12Z model later this afternoon still picks up on this system...

Rain Chances By Midweek:

2007-05-14T04:13:00.000-05:00

* Another warm day is setting up for the Twin States as a weak high pressure dominates the weather for the area. Daytime highs will hit the upper 80s and lower 90s today. There is a slight chance of very isolated thunderstorms today.

* A decent rain chance (about a 50% chance) comes into the forecast by Wednesday as a front works into the Twin States. Once the front passes, daytime highs will drop into the lower and middle 80s with lows by Friday and Saturday morning making it into the upper 40s.

Come On Rain!

2007-05-12T16:12:00.000-05:00

"The day is not over yet." This is what my Chief Meteorologist in Alexandria likes to say when it comes to receiving rainfall. So as we continue to try and get that 40% coverage, I do see a few showers and thunderstorms mainly just to the north of our viewing area. Like yesterday, any storms that get going may briefly become severe with hail and wind being the main threats not to mention heavy downpours. I understand there have already been a couple of warnings across North Mississippi and North Alabama. Even though I am working in Alexandria at the moment, thanks to the internet it is easy for me to keep up with what's going on across East Mississippi and West Alabama. Stay tuned to Newscenter 11 for the latest in breaking weather updates from Rob, and of course Chris will be keeping the blogs up to speed and I will chime in if necessary.

God Bless

Current Radar:

2007-05-12T15:24:00.000-05:00

(Click to enlarge and hit refresh to update)

* Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the Twin States this afternoon. Some storms could briefly pulse up to severe levels at times. Stay with us for updates. Rob Hart will have the latest on Newscenter 11 on the television side and both of us here on the blog.

Severe T-Storm Warning - Pickens Co.

2007-05-12T15:05:00.000-05:00

* The NWS Birmingham has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Pickens County in West Central Alabama until 3:30 PM. The storm is for the most part out of the WTOK viewing area... as our viewing area only covers the southern part of the county and the storm will not affect you. The storm will affect the northwestern part of the county... just east of Columbus along US 82.

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBMX/0705122002.wuus54.html

Warning Cancelled!

2007-05-11T18:59:00.000-05:00

The severe thunderstorm over Choctaw County has now weakened to below severe limits. However, the storm still may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning!

2007-05-11T18:51:00.000-05:00

A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for Choctaw County, Alabama until 7:15 p.m. Here's the text:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...* UNTIL 715 PM CDT* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARAGON...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTLER...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WATER VALLEY THROUGH 655 PM CDT... ISNEY BY 710 PM CDT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

Radar Update!

2007-05-11T18:40:00.000-05:00

Here's the text on the storm over Choctaw County from the National Weather Service in Mobile.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CHOCTAW COUNTY...AT 636 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASTRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PARAGON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 8 MPH.THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...WIMBLY...GILBERTOWN...CHAPPELL HILL...LOU AND SOUWILPA THROUGH 715 PMCDT.THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUDTO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULDDOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEKSHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOWLYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVEREDROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A Few Storms Are Developing!

2007-05-11T14:24:00.000-05:00

Skies have been sunny through most of the day so far, but cumulus clouds are beginning to bubble up. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing down in Wayne County, mainly along and south of Hwy. 84. However, I am still forecasting activity to increase late this afternoon into the early evening hours. Even though I am only forecasting 30% coverage, where the storms to pop up they may produce locally heavy rainfall because they will be slow movers. Stay tuned for more updates.

Quick Update!

2007-05-10T21:36:00.000-05:00

Radar is showing most of the area drying out; however, a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms are continuing across some of the area. One small shower has popped up just to the east of Meridian, and another small cell has popped up in eastern Winston County. The activity will continue to diminish as we get later into the night, but don't be surprised if you ear a few rumbles of thunder over the next couple of hours. We will get the scattered showers and thunderstorms going again on Friday especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Have a good night!

God Bless

Radar Update!

2007-05-10T20:07:00.000-05:00

We have seen a few showers and thunderstorms build across the area late this afternoon and evening; however, this activity should begin to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An outflow boundary has pushed off from the storms to our north, and as this boundary moved into eastern Mississippi a few showers and thunderstorms have developed. Think of an outflow boundary as a mini-front. I was out on my lunch (supper) break when the outflow came through Meridian, and even though it did not produce any rain we did get a nice cooling breeze. In our viewing area, the heaviest rainfall has occurred in Winston County around Louisville and points north. Radar estimates are showing between 1-2 inches have fallen across central Winston County. Other spotty showers and thunderstorms produced some heavy downpours around Quitman late this evening. We should see more scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday and into Saturday as well.

What is a subtropical storm?

2007-05-09T20:45:00.000-05:00

The official start of hurricane season is June 1; however, our first named storm of the season did not feel like waiting until June. The low pressure that has been spinning off the coast of Georgia was named Subtropical Storm Andrea earlier today. As of the 8:00 p.m. E.S.T. advisory, Andrea was barely moving and remained very disorganized. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 miles per hour, and motion to the west or southwest is expected over the next 24 hours. This system is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, but it will continue to produce large swells and breezy conditions across parts of the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coastlines. If this system remains together long enough it would most likely make landfall along the northeast Florida coast; however, storm impacts should be very minimum. Now some folks are thinking just because we have a storm forming this early in the season that it is going to be a bad hurricane season; however, that is not the case so don't give in to the propaganda. On the other hand, with La Nina phasing back in we may see an active season, and hurricane experts are forecasting this season to be above normal as far as tropical cyclone formation goes. Of course you can count on Newscenter 11 to keep you ahead of the 2007 hurricane season.

Now what is a subtropical storm? Here's a good explanation from the National Hurricane Center. A subtropical cyclone is a non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

I hope this helps in your understanding of a subtropical system.

God Bless

2007 Hurricane Season Starts Early:

2007-05-09T11:15:00.000-05:00

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...NORTHEAST
OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH.  A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALONG THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. 
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.

Subtropical Storm Andrea?

2007-05-09T08:08:00.000-05:00

* The NHC has a hurricane hunter aircraft inside the spinning low off the Carolina coast checking on things... something worth watching:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS
MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS
ACQUIRING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE
... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

RAIN CHANCES RETURNING!

2007-05-08T17:20:00.000-05:00

First of all, an area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. has folks already thinking about the 2007 hurricane season. This is a non-tropical low centered about 230 miles ESE of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, and it's producing gale force winds and high seas across the Eastern Seaboard. The National Hurricane Center will send an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft into the system tomorrow if necessary, but the forecast is for this low pressure area to weaken over the next 48 hours.

The backdoor cold front that slipped through East Mississippi and West Alabama and brought the cooler temperatures and lower humidity to the area late Sunday has now stalled across Louisiana. So back to our west they are seeing some shower and thunderstorm activity along and ahead of that boundary across Northwest and North Central Louisiana. Even further west, our next weather maker is in the form of an upper level low pressure system located right now over the southern Rockies, and this system will be on the move into Texas over the next 24-48 hours. The GFS forecasting model has this upper level low dropping down through central parts of Texas and then into the northern Gulf of Mexico; furthermore, if this scenario plays out we will see decent rain chances from Thursday through the weekend and perhaps beyond. However, if the upper level low decides to track across the Plains and stay north of our area that will mean considerable less rain chances for the Twin States. Let's hope the first scenario plays out, and we get some rain. We are around 15.54" of rain behind for the year and area lakes and rivers are really feeling the effects of this severe drought. For more information on the Greensburg, Kansas EF-5 tornado scroll down and check out Chris' blog.

God Bless

Deadly Kansas Tornado Rated EF5:

2007-05-07T14:41:00.002-05:00

* The National Weather Service in Dodge City, Kansas has given the deadly tornado that all but destroyed Greensburg, Kansas Friday night a rating of EF5... which produces winds of 200+ mph. This is the first EF5 on the new classification scale and the first "F5" rated storm since the Moore, Oklahoma tornado back in 1999.

Here is the link the that NWS Dodge City for the latest on the damage survey:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/

As you may recall NOAA changed the tornado classification scale last year and it went in use back in February:

You can learn more information about the EF Scale but following this link the SPC:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/ef-scale.html

Drought Update:

2007-05-04T21:10:00.000-05:00

Here is a drought update for you that the Climate Prediction Center issued on May 1st. Severe drought conditions continue for most of Mississippi into western parts of Alabama. Across northern Alabama conditions are worse; furthermore, they are currently suffering from an extreme drought. Notice the letters AH over Mississippi and Alabama, this basically means that the drought is impacting agricultural and hydrological interests across the Twin States. As many of you know, water levels across the area are running low.
Here is an update on select area water levels:
Pearl River:
Philadelphia 4.86'
Carthage 3.89'

Chickasawhay River:
Enterprise 5.24'
Shubuta NR- Observed data is not available unless over 5 feet

Chunky River:
Chunky 2.65'

Tombigbee River:
Demopolis 33.31'
Gainesville 74.12'

Black Warrior River:
Selden Dam 73.89'

Okatibbee Lake:
338.88'

According to the Climate Prediction Center the drought situation is still expected to improve by at least one category over the next few months which would still leaves us in a moderate drought. Go to the following link to read the hydrologic statement from our National Weather Service Office in Jackson, Mississippi.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/cgi-bin/productview2.php?pil=JANESFJAN&version=0

Have a great weekend and God Bless

Slight Risk For Severe Weather Today

2007-05-04T06:46:00.000-05:00

* The SPC has our area under a slight risk for severe weather today. The primary threat would be damaging winds and hail. Very muggy out there this morning with dewpoints in the 60s. Storms will increase in coverage as we go through the day.

* Strong storms are starting to develop to across South and Southwest Mississippi this morning and as well as Central Mississippi. This activity will move to the east and northeast as we go through the morning and will affect our area later. Already have seen some warnings in Southwest Mississippi this morning.

* More information during Good Morning Meridian updates during Good Morning America and here on the blog...

4:00 AM Update:

2007-05-04T04:59:00.001-05:00

Radar Update:

2007-05-04T01:34:00.000-05:00

Sorry, I haven't posted in a couple of hours because I've had trouble getting on the blog. The complex of showers and thunderstorms has really weakened over the past couple of hours. It appears the severe threat is almost non-existent; however, a tornado watch continues for Jones County until 4:00 this morning. The main threat looks to be heavy rain which is good news because we could really use the rainfall. We may see more showers and thunderstorms develop later this morning into the afternoon hours and those could pack a punch if they can get going. Enjoy the rain, and we'll be here to keep you updated.

Radar Update:

2007-05-03T22:48:00.000-05:00

Tonight we are continuing to watch a line of strong to severe thunderstorms pushing across parts of central and southern Mississippi. I haven't seen any new warnings issued over the past hour or so, but a tornado watch remains in effect for a good chunk of southern Mississippi. In our viewing area, Jones County is under a tornado watch until 4:00 a.m. This line of storms should begin to affect our western counties in the next couple of hours, and the storms should be moving through the Meridian area in the early morning hours say between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out since there is a tornado watch in effect for southern Mississippi. Stay tuned for more updates.

Severe Weather Potential!

2007-05-03T20:42:00.000-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has put our Mississippi counties in a slight risk for severe weather tonight into at least Friday morning. A slow moving complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing from Louisiana into western and southwestern Mississippi at this hour. This complex of storms should continue pushing off to the east during the overnight hours. Over the past couple of hours, we have noticed this system weakening somewhat; however, let's not drop our guard just yet. I think the main threat with these storms will be damaging wind and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two can't be ruled out. The forecast models we look at are doing a terrible job of handling this event so here is what I think. The best time frame for seeing this activity will be from the early morning hours on Friday until the mid-afternoon; the reason for the broad time frame is once again due to how poorly models are performing. The convection should weaken overall, but still there will be a threat for at least some isolated severe thunderstorms. I will be here as long as the potential for severe weather exists, and Chris will come in if things start getting out of hand. Let's just hope this thing holds together so we can get some much needed rainfall.

God Bless

Radar Update - Watching To Our West

2007-05-03T18:48:00.000-05:00

* Mean line of severe thunderstorms working through far Western Louisiana getting ready to cross the Mississippi River near Vicksburg. Lots of damage reports in Louisiana with this line of storms and a report of major damage around Bastrop, Louisiana.

* Tornado Watch in effect for areas to our west of our coverage area... mainly from Brandon and west to the Vicksburg area. This activity will work toward our area later tonight.

* Stay with us for updates here on the blog and on Newscenter 11...

New Tornado Watch To Our West:

2007-05-03T18:28:00.000-05:00

* Looks like a long night for us... SPC just issued a Tornado Watch for areas just outside our viewing area... no counties in our WTOK coverage area are included. Its roughly along and west of Interstate 55 and into Louisiana... course those storms will end up in our area later tonight.

* Damage report out of Noxubee Co: Shuqualak [Noxubee Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:53 PM CDT -- tree down on powerlines.

* Trent and I have got your covered on tv and on the web... I am going stay up and watch the weather situation tonight and handle the blog from home but will probably head up to the station later to assist Trent who is handling the tv side of our coverage.

* Reminder: Our friends over at WMOX radio will be carrying our weather cut-ins for those of you who may be away from tv later tonight. There are at 1010 on the AM dial!

Warnings Update:

2007-05-03T17:34:00.000-05:00

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Kemper County has been cancelled. The cluster of storms has weakened and is no longer severe. Expect moderate to heavy rain in spots across the county and perhaps some small hail and gusty winds. The storms are moving northeastward at 25 mph.

Warnings Update:

2007-05-03T17:26:00.000-05:00

* Lauderdale County's warning (Severe Thunderstorm) has be cancelled as the storms have moved into Kemper County. Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for Kemper until 6:00 PM. NWS indicates the storms are weakening but still could have penny size hail and gusty winds. The storms will affect areas along and east of MS Hwy 39... including DeKalb, Enondale, Scooba, and Porterville.

* Trent will have updates on television while I cover things on the blog here

Severe T-Storm Warning - Lauderdale and Kemper County:

2007-05-03T17:14:00.000-05:00

* NWS Jackson has issued a Severe T-Storm Warning for Lauderdale and Kemper County until 6:00 PM

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0705032212.wuus54.html

The storms will affect NAS Meridian, Daleville, Oak Grove, Blackwater, Enondale, Porterville, DeKalb. Areas along Hwy 39 and US 45 will be impacted by the storms.

Radar Update - Storms Getting Active

2007-05-03T16:53:00.000-05:00

* Strong thunderstorm affecting Lauderdale, Newton, and Neshoba Counties in East Mississippi. The storms stretch from gust west of Meridian to Collinsville to House and to Union. Another storm was located in Netwon Co. along Hwy 503 moving close to Duffee and Little Rock. This band of storms will move northeast at 25 mph. NWS reports these storms could have some small hail but at the moment are not severe. They could pulse up to severe levels at any time.

* NWS reports: 3 N Forest [Scott Co, MS] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 04:10 PM CDT -- a few trees down off highway 35 around forest.

* Take note on the statewide radar image that another line of storms is approaching the Mississippi River. There are active warnings with these storms and the SPC is reporting a watch possible with that line of storms.

* More updates with Trent here in a bit on Live at 5:00 on Newscenter 11... and here on the weather blog

Radar Update - Severe T'Storm Warning For Scott County Continues:

2007-05-03T16:22:00.000-05:00

Click for larger view

* Severe T-Storm Warning continues for Scott County until 4:45 PM... affecting the northeastern part of the county. The storm will approach Steele and Sebastopol here in the next few minutes.

* Strong storms over Western Lauderdale County along I-59 and I-20 from the split west of Meridian to Lost Gap and Meehan. This storm will clip the Savoy area as well and affect Meridian and Suqualena.

* Another band of storms along I-20 from Newton to Lake. This band is moving northeast and will affect Decatur, Union, and Little Rock.

* Stay with us for updates... Trent is on the television end and I am covering the weather blog...

Severe T-Storm Warning - Scott County:

2007-05-03T16:09:00.000-05:00

* The NWS in Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 4:45 PM for Scott County in Central Mississippi.

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0705032107.wuus54.html

The storm will affect Hillsboro, Steele and will pass north of Forest. On this track the storm will affect Sebastopol as well. It is mainly affecting the northeastern part of the county. The storm is moving northeast at 25 mph.

Storms Approaching From Our Southwest:

2007-05-03T14:40:00.000-05:00

(Click for larger view)

* Band of strong to severe thunderstorms is approaching our southwestern counties of the Newscenter 11 viewing area. At the moment there are no warnings in our viewing area. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are in effect over South Central Mississippi with the storms in Simpson, Marion and Jefferson Davis County.

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Jones County only until 4:00 PM. We'll have to wait and see here if the SPC decides to extend a new watch more into our viewing area.

* Trent will have more on the television side and here on the blog this afternoon and evening. I will also be updating here on the blog if storms start to affect our area.

Severe Threat:

2007-05-03T14:36:00.000-05:00

Right now we are watching a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving across South Central Mississippi. This line is moving off to the north northeast, and it could begin to affect WTOK's western and southwestern counties over the next hour or so. These storms have a history of producing winds in excess of 70 m.p.h. around Brookhaven, MS and a few trees were blown down in that area as well. A severe thunderstorm watch continues for Jones County in our viewing area until 4:00 p.m. Stay tuned for further updates...

Severe T-Storm Watch To Our Southwest:

2007-05-03T11:45:00.000-05:00

* SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas of South and Southwest Mississippi until 4:00 PM. This watch only includes one county in our viewing area... Jones County.

* More later....

8:00 AM Update

2007-05-03T08:08:00.000-05:00

* Isolated thunderstorms have popped up just west of Meridian in Lauderdale County. There are also isolated storms popping up in parts of Jasper County.

Isolated Storms Today:

2007-05-03T06:53:00.000-05:00

* Good morning... we've already seen some isolated storms this morning across parts of Winston and Noxubee County. With a moist atmopshere and daytime heating storms will pop up in random spots today.

* Better rain chances come into the forecast later tonight and tomorrow as the system over Texas finally moves our way. Models keep the area wet through next week so isolated storms will be kept in the forecast.

* No heat relief: No cool down is expect as daytime highs remain in the middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s.

* New Weather Blog: We are starting a new weather blog that will be run through our website server and not the blogger server here soon. Its not up yet as we are still working out the bugs but we will switch to it here in the next week or so. The new link for the weather and other stations blogs is:

http://www.wtok.com/wtokblogs

* Have a great day...

Evening Update:

2007-05-02T21:39:00.000-05:00

Forecast models are doing a poor job handling the convective system racing across Texas. This system has produced widespread wind damage across Texas with tornado and hail reports as well; furthermore, check out all the storm reports across Texas associated with this event by looking at the above image. This system has pushed well ahead of the primary upper level disturbance which is located in eastern New Mexico and western Texas. So the further this complex of storms moves east it should weaken as it gets away from the main support. I will call for this system to weaken as it heads toward the Mississippi River, but check Chris' forecast out tomorrow morning just in case it does hold together. As the main upper level disturbance across eastern New Mexico and western Texas continues to move east, we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon. This shortwave will move across Mississippi on Friday and bring us our best chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Have a good night,

God Bless

A Few Showers Today, More On The Way!

2007-05-02T18:35:00.000-05:00

A few showers moved across our western counties earlier today, and we had a couple of thunderstorms across eastern Wayne County and also southern Choctaw County Alabama. All of that activity is now dissipating, and really we only had maybe 10-20% total coverage. Most of the rainfall at this hour is moving across North Mississippi, and this activity should stay to the north of our area indicated by the first radar image you see.

The second radar image is from the Dallas/Forth Worth area, and as you can see that are getting some hefty thunderstorm action. The activity across Texas is associated with an upper level disturbance that is moving in our direction. I don't think we will see the severe weather they are seeing across parts of Texas; however, this upper level feature (shortwave) will provide us with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for later in the day Thursday. The shortwave should be moving across Mississippi by Friday, that will be the time period when we see our best chance for showers and thunderstorms.

God Bless

SCATTERED STORMS ON THE WAY!

2007-05-01T20:16:00.000-05:00

As high pressure continues to slip off to the east, it will allow fairly week upper level disturbances to affect East Mississippi and West Alabama. On this Tuesday night, an upper level low is centered across the Southern Plains; however, as this system lifts to the northeast it will have very little impact on our weather because most of the rainfall will stay to the north and west of the Twin States. So Wednesday will be for the most part dry with very warm temperatures continuing. By the way, today we hit a high of 88° at Key Field in Meridian which gives us our warmest day of the year so far. I will hold out for a 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday, but the best chance of rain will stay to the west of Interstate 55. By late Wednesday, another upper level disturbance should be moving into West Texas, and this system will continue to move off the the east on Thursday. With our warm and moist atmosphere in place, as this disturbance approaches our area scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the menu for Thursday and Friday.

The above map was generated by the GFS Model at 12Z (7:00 a.m.) this morning, and it is showing precipitation for 0Z Friday which is really 7:00 p.m. Thursday. And just so you know what you are reading here is a little guide taken from Unisys Weather. (The quantitative precpitation field shows estimated 12 hour precipitation (liquid equivalent) for the 12 hour period prior to the valid time). So it basically shows rainfall rates below a 0.25" across the area from 7 a.m. Thursday through 7 p.m. Thursday. However, isolated rain totals could approach 0.50" or even higher with stronger storms. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time, but any storm that develops may produce gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. We need the rainfall because we are 14.43" behind for the year.

God Bless

Welcome To May:

2007-05-01T03:45:00.000-05:00

* Very mild morning across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this morning. Temperatures are in the middle 50s as I write this with clear skies in the area. Nice almost full moon in the sky this morning. It will be officially full tomorrow May 2nd.

* Daytime highs will climb back into the upper 80s today on southerly winds. A few clouds will drift in from the west as we go through the day so mostly sunny skies will dominate the forecast.

* Rain chances: The high over the Southeast is still keeping the storm system over Texas from moving much but eventually it will move toward Mississippi as the high weakens and shifts out of the area. A cold front will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday night and will stall just to our north. The combination of the low moving in and the front will help showers and storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. The front will stall over Southeast and another low over the Southwestern US will work this way over the weekend and first of next week keeping clouds in place with a few thunderstorms in the forecast.

* More on the forecast on Good Morning Meridian from 5:30 - 7:00 AM. Also join Trent tonight at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00...

April Ends Warm & Dry... May Starts Warm & Dry:

2007-04-30T16:40:00.000-05:00

* As we start May tomorrow, a warm ridge dominates the Southeast and is keeping things warm and dry across the Twin States. Daytime highs yesterday were in the middle and upper 80 and we are heading in that same direction today. The warm trend will stay with us through the extended periods.

* Rain chances this week: A storm system over Texas that is being blocked by the high will eventually move toward Mississippi as the high weakens and shifts out of the area. A cold front will drop down into the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday. The combination of the low moving in and the front will help showers and storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. The front will stall over Southeast and a few more weak shortwave lows will move across through the weekend and first of next week keeping clouds in place with a few thunderstorms.

* Drought Monitor: US Drought monitor still has our area under Severe Stage Drought levels. We are ending the month of April only picking up 3.28" of rain. Most of that came with the two inch rain event last week. April officially ends at -2.34 below normal but the year still stands severe at -14.26" for Key Field.

* More on your forecast here in a bit on Newscenter 11 at 5:00 and later at 6:00 and 10:00. I am back again with you bright and early (though I might be a bit tired) on Good Morning Meridian: Early Editon at 5:30 AM Tuesday and Good Morning Meridian from 6:00 - 7:00 AM.

Warm & Dry Though Midweek:

2007-04-30T07:10:00.000-05:00

* I am running a bit late on the morning blog update this morning... sorry about that everyone.

* High pressure will be dominate the Twin States through Wednesday. Our next chance of rain will be late Wednesday night through Saturday as upper level disturbances affects the region.

* A front will move south along with a the disturbance over Texas will combine to affect our area by Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance will affect the area over the weekend but it will not be a total washout.

* I'll have a more detailed forecast on the blog later today as I am back in at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 covering the evening shift for Trent.

* Have a great week!

Weekend Forecast!

2007-04-27T20:55:00.000-05:00

The forecast this weekend looks good for all of your outdoor activities. First, of course tonight is Relay For Life out at Ray Stadium, and I don't think we could ask for better weather. It may be a little cool with lows dipping into the upper 40s; otherwise, look for some clouds to be moving in by early Saturday morning. If clouds are a bit thicker than expected, then morning lows may not be quiet as cool; however, we won't split hairs over that.

Saturday is shaping up fairly nice as well. An upper level disturbance will be passing to the north of us so the best rain chance will be across North Mississippi and the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, but I can't rule out a sprinkle or two and even a light shower as far south as the Interstate 20 Corridor. By the afternoon, clouds will be on the decrease and sunshine returns. Look for highs in the upper 70s to near 80.

Sunday will be the best day of all with full sunshine and highs in the lower 80s. Expect temperatures to be in the upper 40s to near 50 when you wake early Sunday morning. Hopefully by the end of next week we will see at least some isolated showers and thunderstorms to help cut in to these rainfall defecits.

I am heading back to Louisiana this weekend to continue my weekend weather position in Alexandria, but make sure to catch Rob Hart this weekend and Chris Whited all day Monday. I will be joining you again on Tuesday Evening. I really enjoy being back in Meridian, but I will enjoy it even more when I get through working in Louisiana which is the end of May. Have a wonderful weekend.

God Bless

Heading For The Weekend:

2007-04-27T03:27:00.000-05:00

* Clear skies this morning as I was driving to work and noticed the moon is looking nice in the western sky. Its starting to fill in so we got a full moon around the corner. A bit cool this morning as I write this... we sit in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Highs will head into the upper 70s today.

* The GFS and NAM forecast models are still having a difference of opinion on this shower chance for tomorrow morning. The weak shortwave according to the NAM will affect areas north of US 80 and the GFS keeps the showers north of Columbus. I am going to throw in a shower in my forecast package but not too confident. Models bring the next chance for rain into the area at the end of the forecast period around Friday of next week. As we get more into May models show rain chances on the 5th and 6th of the month. Overall pattern looks to remain at or slighty above normal on temperatures.

* Meridian & Clarke Co. Relay For Life: Weather looks great for the event in Meridian tonight and tomorrow for Clarke Co. I will say there is a slight chance of a shower during the morning hours but I still think the rain will stay to our north. The NAM keeps the shower chance north of US 80 in the Twin States while the GFS keeps the activity way into Northeast Mississippi and Northwest Alabama. Don't forget to wear purple today in support for Relay for Life!

* Just finished putting together the river and lake level graphic for the morning news. The rains from Wednesday night and Thursday are getting into the waterways as most are up. Just a reminder I show the graphic going into the breaks each morning around 5:37 and at 6:37 during Good Morning Meridian. Trent plans on showing it as well on the evening newscasts if he is not already.

* Have a good weekend everyone... see you later this morning on GMM: Early Edition at 5:30 and GMM from 6:00 to 7:00!

Drought News!

2007-04-26T20:49:00.000-05:00

Most of East Mississippi and West Alabama remain in a severe drought, and there are parts of North Alabama currently in an extreme drought. The map above which was released by the Climate Prediction Center on April 19th, indicates that we should see some improvement from the drought conditions across Mississippi and Alabama from now through July. The green shaded areas which includes the Twin States means that we should at least see improvement by one category. However, that would still leave us in a moderate drought. The rain we received Wednesday night into Thursday morning did help a little, but we still need more. Out of that rain event, Key Field received 2.11" of rain and NAS Meridian had 1.29" of rain. So here's how we are looking in Meridian. For the month of April, we have received 3.28" of rain which leaves us 1.66" behind the normal. For the year, 9.56" of rain has fallen so we are 13.58" short of the average.

Looking down the road, rain chances are fairly bleak. There is a 20% chance of showers on Saturday, but most of that activity should be confined to North Mississippi. By next Thursday, another slight 20% chance of rain is in the forecast, but the 18Z run of the GFS is painting a little more rain coverage than that for next Thursday so we'll see.

The forecast for Relay for Life Friday night at Ray Stadium is looking great. I'm expecting mostly clear skies, but clouds will be increasing by early Saturday morning. Lows will be dipping down into the upper 40s so you may need a light jacket if you get cold easily.

God Bless

Final Rain Totals & Drying Out:

2007-04-26T06:46:00.000-05:00

* Everyone got a good soaking with last night and the morning rain and thunderstorms across the Twin States. Doppler radar estimates show anywhere from 1.00" to 3.00" in spots since Wednesday evening.

* Official Totals as of 6:00 AM show Meridian's Key Field picked up a storm total of 2.11" and NAS Meridian's McCain Field picked up 1.29."

* The front is moving toward Eastern Mississippi and is allowing clouds to decrease across areas to the west. This will work into the area later this morning.

* Have yourself a good Thursday... Trent will have more on your forecast later tonight on Newscenter 11 at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00!

Rain Total Update:

2007-04-26T04:11:00.000-05:00

* At 4:00 AM here is the latest rain reports from the NWS ASOS sites here in East Mississippi:
(Totals since Wednesday evening)

Key Field - Meridian 2.04"

McCain Field - NAS Meridian 1.24"

3:30 AM Update:

2007-04-26T03:24:00.000-05:00

* Mass of rain and some embedded thunderstorms continue to move across Eastern and Southeastern Mississippi and across Western and Southwestern Alabama. I am loving this heavy rain... just as I am sure many of us do! Its good sleeping weather except for us meteorologist who have the AM shift...lol!

* As of 3:00 AM..... Key Field sits at 1.84" storm total on rainfall since Wednesday evening. NAS Meridian's McCain Field sits at 1.05" since Wednesday evening. This is exactly what we needed and thankfully the skies have opened up. We still need a lot more to help the drought and we go back into a dry pattern once this rain event ends.

* Be careful on the roads this morning as there is ponding water on the roads and streets. Here in Meridian there is quite a bit of ponded water on streets downtown... at least there was when I came in a little after 1:00 this morning.

* Tornado Watch still in effect for Wayne, Choctaw and Clarke, Ala. until 8:00 AM. There have been no warnings at all except down around New Orleans. I expect the watch to be cancelled here in a while for those counties.

* About to start looking over the model data and get my forecast package together for the morning shift... will have more on the forecast a bit later!

Let The Rain Fall:

2007-04-26T02:10:00.000-05:00

* Rain continues to fall here across East Mississippi and its more than welcomed!

* 2:00 AM Update on rainfall at the ASOS weather sites in our area:

Key Field: 1.62"
McCain Field (NAS Meridian): 0.91"

* Be careful if you are out and about this morning on the roadways. There is a lot of water on the streets here in Meridian... as I noticed driving up to WTOK. Also be careful of the usual spots that flood as it has been so dry those dry stream beds will pick up water quickly.

* More updates as needed... enjoy the rain!

Radar & Rain Total Update:

2007-04-26T01:40:00.000-05:00

* Band of rain continues to move across Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama this early morning. Stronger storms are across the Pine Belt.

* Tornado Watch until 8:00 AM for Wayne Co. in Mississippi and Choctaw and Clarke in West Alabama.

* Nice rains.... we are now up to 1.48" at Meridian Airport (Key Field) and 0.70" at NAS Meridian (McClain Field)

* Trent and I are monitoring the weather situation...

Tornado Watch Issued Until 8:00 AM:

2007-04-26T00:49:00.000-05:00

* The SPC has just issued a Tornado Watch for most of Southeast Mississippi and Southwest Alabama until 8:00 AM CDT. This is mostly for the Southeast parts of our viewing area.

* In the WTOK viewing area:

Mississippi: Wayne Co.
Alabama: Choctaw & Clarke Co.

* I'm heading up to the station here in a few minutes...

Radar Update & General Thoughts:

2007-04-25T23:07:00.000-05:00

(11:00 PM Radar - Click for larger view)

* I am usually in bed about this time since I get up at 2:30 AM but the weather radio alarm earlier and my afternoon nap have me wide awake so I thought I would blog a little.

* Good Soaking Rain: I just checked the ASOS site rain totals and not bad... Key Field as last check reported 1.14" for the day and up the road at McCain Field at NAS Meridian 0.57". We need it and we still have a chance for some more later this morning as the front is moving through Louisiana and will get here later in the morning. We could see some more storms develop along and ahead of the front... but severe weather is limited as this mass of rain and storms tonight has stabilized the atmosphere.

* Going to try to knock a nap out here before my morning shift starts. I'll have my normal forecast discussion blog later into the morning and I'll see you all on Good Morning Meridian form 5:30 - 7:00!

Rain And A Few Strong Storms Continue!

2007-04-25T19:53:00.000-05:00

We have seen strong storms move through the Meridian and Lauderdale County areas over the past hour or so. These storms produced brief heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds as they moved through downtown Meridian. Those storms are now moving towards Lauderdale, De Kalb, Scooba, Porterville, and Electric Mills. Another cluster of thunderstorms is moving from Jasper County into southeastern Newton County and southwestern Lauderdale County. Right now we have no watches or warnings in effect, but stay tuned to Newscenter 11 for the latest weather information. We are also watching another line of thunderstorms back across northwestern Louisiana extending down into eastern parts of Texas. This may affect us later tonight into early Thursday.

Radar Update/ Strong Storms in Eastern Mississippi:

2007-04-25T19:15:00.000-05:00

* Strong thunderstorms will continue to affect East Mississippi and West Alabama over the next few hours. Strong storms are arriving in Meridian as I speak. The band is running roughly from Philadelphia to Collinsville to Meridian to Enterprise

Tornado Watch Cancelled/ Storm Reports:

2007-04-25T18:57:00.000-05:00

* NWS in Jackson has cancelled the Tornado Watch that was in effect until 9:00 PM for Leake and Scott Co.

* Having said that an outflow boundary has moved ahead of the main storm activity and out of the watch area and has diminished the severe weather threat in Western and Central Mississippi. Now the outflow is helping storms fire over Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama. A watch could be issued for our area later this evening.

* Quick storm report from NWS... 8 NNW Philadelphia [Neshoba Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 06:44 PM CDT -- a tree down along highway 395

*Hearing thunder here at my house in Northeast Meridian...

* This is the first round of storms. Another line of storms is forming well off to the west over the Ark-La-Tex along the front. This activity will affect us later tonight and toward dawn.

* Trent is covering Newscenter 11 updates on television, I'm on the blog and IM with the NWS and Rob is on the blog and IM from Starkville. Stay with us for updates

Local Storm Reports:

2007-04-25T18:50:00.000-05:00

* NWS is reporting via our instant messenger conference a report of nickel size hail 2 miles southwest of the Pearl River Resort in Neshoba Co. There is also a report of a tree down.
(6:49 PM - NWS JAN)

6:45 Radar Update:

2007-04-25T18:40:00.000-05:00

(Click For Larger View)

Severe T-Storm Warning : Leake & Neshoba Co.

2007-04-25T18:27:00.000-05:00

* The NWS in Jackson has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Leake and Neshoba County until 6:45 PM.

Warning text:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAN/0704252322.wuus54.html

The storm will affect the casino area of the Pearl River Resort, Choctaw, and the community of Pearl River on the Mississippi Band of Choctaw Indians Reservation area along MS Hwy 16 in Leake and Neshoba County. The storm will also affect the northern part of the county around Stallo. Bases on movement, the storm should move north of Philadelphia. Radar is also indicating some weak rotation with this storm.

Tornado Watch Issued For Our Western Counties:

2007-04-25T13:57:00.000-05:00

* The SPC has just issued a Tornado Watch for Western and Central Mississippi until 9:00 CDT tonight. In WTOK's viewing area the watch includes Leake and Scott County.

* Trent will be into the station here in a few minutes. I am at home and will monitor things from here this evening, but I will join Trent later when things start affecting our area. Continued updates here on the WTOK Weather Blog and on Newscenter 11 on television

Quick Notes:

2007-04-25T08:15:00.000-05:00

* This morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Jackson NWS:

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SET TO IMPACT THE ARKLAMISS REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING THE RISK OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILLBE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ANDWEST OF A MOREHOUSE LOUISIANA TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI LINE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEPOSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE REST OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO PRENTISS LINE. FINALLY...LOCATIONS IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND EAST OF A COLUMBUS TO COLUMBIA LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR ARE URGED TO KEEP UPWITH WEATHER UPDATES THIS MORNING AS AN EVOLVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HEADED TOWARD THE REGION COULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECLINE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS. RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

...FLOODING...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS ALONG AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. EXPECT RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT MAY RESULT IN MINOR PONDING OF WATER ISSUES.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS ABIT HIGHER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTLOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WEST OF A NATCHEZ...TO VICKSBURG...TO GREENWOOD LINE. HERE...THE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE MOSTAFFECTED LOCATIONS.

Strong Storms Tonight:

2007-04-25T03:10:00.000-05:00

* Good morning... a very early good morning. My clock has 3:10 here at the station so its safe to say I am well up before the chickens! Fun aside lets talk about tonight's storm threat.

* New SPC Day 1 outlook shows no change from my posting last night. Its still has all of our area under a slight risk for severe weather. As you've noticed I have added the probability outlooks and it appears wind damage (30%) and hail (15%) are the main threats for our area. However an isolated tornado is not out of the question.

* Timing: The 0Z (last night's run) brings the line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms into our western viewing area around 6Z (1:00 AM Thursday CDT) and to the US 45 and AL Hwy. 17 corridor around 12Z (7:00 AM). Models still show some activity, mostly in our West Alabama counties around 18Z (1:00PM),

* Rainfall: I will admit I am bad about just looking at the GFS models only and not the others at times. Based on the GFS, rain estimates vary from as low as 0.25" to 0.75" and the model is still hinting the heavier rain off to our west and north for the most part. We could see higher totals with the stronger storms. Trent noted in an email this morning to me that he looked at the NAM model which paints rain totals from 0.50" to 1.00" for East Mississippi and West Alabama. I like his numbers better because it means more main and that is something we do need.

* Heading toward the weekend... the GFS is painting a slight chance of rain for Saturday mostly to the north of our area but there may be enought to squeeze out a shower north of US 80. I haven't put my forecast package together yet... as I am looking at the models and sharing my thoughts those of you reading this. Yesterday the model had the rain over most of Mississippi and I opted to leave it out. With the model taking it more northward I may do the same today.

* The month looks to end on a dry and warm note with a high centering right over the Twin States. Models suggest we return to a somewhat wet pattern around May 3-9th with rain chances each day. Of course I will admit again that far out on these long range models is "voodoo land." Yesterday the models showed no rain chances until May 7th... just to make a comparison.

* More on the forecast from 5:30 - 7:00 AM on Good Morning Meridian. I'm heading to Newton County later this morning to speak to some youngsters in Decatur about weather. Trent will be back in tonight at 5:00, 6:00 and 10:00 with the newest weather information on the storm threat.

* Have yourself a great Wednesday...

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Night & Thursday:

2007-04-24T16:14:00.000-05:00

SPC Day 2 Outlook

SPC Day 3 Outlook

* Latest run of the GFS (I am looking at the 12Z run) brings a complex of thunderstorms into Mississippi around midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning and spreads across the state and into Western Alabama around sunrise. Models bring the prime storm activity into Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama around that time.

* The GFS brings a decent amount of rain into Mississippi as the complex more in but shifts the heavier rain totals from Southwest into Central and Northeast Mississippi. It suggests rain totals from as low as 0.25" to 1.00" for our area (being the higher totals the further north you go)

* Jackson NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook:

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO JUST EAST OF THE RIVER.

THE STORMS WILL RESULT FROM A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE URGE TO
KEEP UP WITH WEATHER UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEM
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
STORM SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR ALONG
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH LATER
FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM.

* Trent will have the latest forecast tonight at 5, 6, and 10. I am back to my normal schedule tomorrow... see you at 5:30 AM!

Severe Weather Possible on Wednesday

2007-04-24T01:16:00.000-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Newscenter 11 viewing area under a slight risk of severe weather for Wednesday. Particularly, Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.

Over the weekend it looked like this weather system was going to be weakening by the time it moved into the area. Now, it looks like the system may be a little stronger than initially thought. Main threats, at this time (and this could change...remember that we're talking about 40 hours out here) appear to be isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

Chris will have more on the potential of severe weather and additional details on when we'll finally see some of the much needed rain, later this morning on Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition at 5:30, and on Good Morning Meridian at 6:00.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html will take you to the SPC's Day2 Outlook Page.

Severe Weather Across the Plains

2007-04-23T23:00:00.000-05:00

It seems like the Texas Panhandle has had their fair share of severe weather this spring. On March 28th there were 15 confirmed tornadoes. On April 21st there were eight confirmed tornadoes, and this past Saturday (April 21) there were 11 tornadoes, and that number may go up. That's 34 tornadoes within a month! The same area was under a tornado watch earlier tonight, but fortunately no tornadoes were reported in the area. Tornadoes have been reported, however, elsewhere in Texas and Kansas.

Here's some information about the strongest tornado that developed this past Saturday:

On April 21, the town of Cactus, TX was hit by an EF-2 tornado (winds 110-137mph). This tornado was up to 3/4 of a mile wide at times!! Unfortunately there were 14 injuries reported. However, that toll could have been much higher, and thankfully there was plenty of warning given to the area. Several mobile homes were destroyed, but the people who lived in those homes received the warning before the tornado struck and took appropriate action by seeking shelter in a sturdier building. The tornado was on the ground for 25 miles and for 35 minutes!

This evening has been another active severe weather evening across the Great Plains. At this time there have been 18 reports of tornadoes (none in the Texas Panhandle), 16 reports of wind damage, and 62 reports of large hail. These numbers will likely increase throughout the night.

A supercell in the Abilene area has been ongoing for over four hours! Hopefully it isn't causing much in the way of damage.

Another supercell in western Kansas produced a tornado near Goodland. The National Weather Service Office in Goodland reported being able to see the tornado from their office! Imagine being able to look out the window at your place of work and being able to see a tornado!

The largest hail report received so far this evening has been in Sweetwater, TX where 2.75" hail was reported. The highest damaging wind gust was 64mph at Laughlin Air Force Base, also in Texas.

Watching For Rain Chances:

2007-04-23T17:40:00.000-05:00

* A few isolated showers have popped up in spots across Eastern Mississippi this late afternoon. Plenty of low level moisture in place as the dewpoint has jumped up into the upper 50s and lower 60s across Mississippi. A weak upper low will track across the area late tonight and tomorrow and may keep a few showers in the forecast. The main rain chance looks to stay north of US 82 well into Northern Mississippi and into Northern Alabama. Having said that with daytime heating and the dewpoint running high a shower is not out of the question.

* Still watching the storm system to our west as it seems to bring the best rain chance to the area late Wednesday night and into Thursday. The models have started slowing this system down some. The 12Z GFS runs are looking a bit better on rain than my discussion this morning. I do not that the models hint at a "cap" in place over Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama until about Wednesday night. The models still show the main instability to our west and north for the event...but we could see an isolated severe storm and once the cap breaks we have decent rain chances for our area. Models show from a half to one inch of rain possible for the area. The model still shows the heavier rain (about 72 hours out from the 12Z run) across Northeast Mississippi roughly along and north of MS Hwy. 16. I'm waiting for the new in between model runs to come in later tonight to see if there has been any change.

* Don't forget the SKYWARN Class is tonight at 7:00 at the Lauderdale Co. EMA office. Their office is across the road from the Meridian Fire Department Central Station on 14th Street.

* New website: WTOK launched the new website this morning. There is still a link to the weather blog on the Weather page.... its under the radar image and under the small Newscenter 11 Weather banner. We're working on a new weather blog that will soon be up and hosted on another server down the road.

* Have a good evening. Trent is in tomorrow night and I am back at 5:30 AM on Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition and at 6:00 AM on Good Morning Meridian.

WTOK.com Changes:

2007-04-23T17:24:00.000-05:00

* Our parent company launched our new look to our website this morning. Some of you are asking about the weather blog link. If you go to the weather page and look under the large radar image under the Newscenter 11 Weather Banner there is still a link to the weather blog.

Otherwise bookmark this link: http://newscenter11weather.blogspot.com

* Note: We are working on a new weather blog that will be hosted directly through our website and not blogger so in a few weeks the weather blog might change all together.

Rain Chances This Week:

2007-04-23T03:20:00.000-05:00

* In a bit early now since we start Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition this morning at 5:30 AM. Haven't really put my forecast package together yet... just skimming over the model data (mostly last night's run of the GFS models). Looks to be a dry day here in the Twin States on this Monday at least during the day.

* Rain Chances: The GFS is hinting at a chance of showers tonight across the area. Models take a weak shortwave over Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama tomorrow which may be close enought to squeeze out a slight chance of some rain (mostly north of US 80 and to be honest probably well north of MS 16) The GFS run keeps scattered showers north of I-20 later in the day and overnight.

* The best rain chance comes late Wednesday night and into Thursday as the high weakens its hold over the Twin States in the Atlantic. Big storm taking shape over the South Plains will make its way toward Mississippi and Alabama. The data (about 78 hours out) shows a decent round of thunderstorms moving into the area. I will say looking at some of the other models, looks like we may deal with some strong to severe storms. The model tends to hint at over 1.00" of rain which is not a bad thing as we are in need of the rain.

* Past the storm system this week it looks like we transition back into our continued warm and dry pattern. The only next decent rain chance showing on the long range models come into early May... which I will say is way out in "voodoo land."

* Don't forget the SKYWARN class at LEMA tonight here in Meridian at 7:00 PM. Scan down the blog for more on the class.

* See you a bit earlier at 5:30 AM and have a great week...

Greetings From Central Louisiana:

2007-04-22T21:13:00.000-05:00

This is my first blog here at WTOK, and I just wanted to take a minute to tell you a little about me. I was born and raised in Meridian, and graduated from Clarkdale High School in 2000. My parents are Mike and Glenda Hughes, and I have one brother Todd Hughes who currently attends Clarkdale. I went to Meridian Community College for two years and received my Associate's Degree, and then I transferred to Mississippi State University in the Fall of 2002. I received my B.S. Degree in Geosciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology and also a Minor in Communications in 2005. While at Mississippi State, I met my wife Jessica Hughes. We have been married for almost a year, and we currently do not have any children but we do have a dog and two cats so obviously I love animals. I have spent the last two years as the Weekend Meteorologist in Alexandria, LA; furthermore, I will continue doing weekend weather in Alexandria through the end of May while also working Tuesday-Friday in Meridian. I am very excited to get the chance to move back home, and I look forward to providing East Mississippi and West Alabama with accurate weather information. I would also like to say a big thank-you to Chris Whited (Morning Meteorologist) for the help and training he has provided me during this transition period. The weather graphics system I use at KALB in Alexandria is totally different than the weather equipment WTOK has, but Chris is doing a great job teaching me how to use it. Please make sure to scroll down the page the see the information Chris posted about the SKYWARN Spotter Class. A little weather blurb... The area remains very dry, but rainfall is in the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday. Check out Rob Hart's forecast on Newscenter 11 at Ten tonight, and then catch Chris bright and early tomorrow morning at 5:30 on Good Morning Meridian. God Bless!

Monday Notes:

2007-04-22T14:17:00.000-05:00

* Just a quick reminder that the National Weather Service in Jackson will be in Meridian tomorrow night for a SKYWARN class at the LEMA office. (LEMA's office is across the street from the Meridian Fire Department's Central Station on the hill) See the graphic above for more information...

* Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition kicks off tomorrow morning at 5:30 AM... so you'll see Andrea and I on a bit earlier in the mornings. Our new half hour will have more news while the normal 6:00 - 7:00 hour will be the same Good Morning Meridian format you wake up to every morning.

* Have a good week. See you bright and early tomorrow morning at 5:30!

A Loss In Our MSU Weather Family:

2007-04-20T21:24:00.000-05:00

* I learned some sad news this afternoon about a former classmate of mine who lost her battle with cancer at the age of 27. Melissa Greer, the weekend meteorologist at WBTV in Charlotte, North Carolina died this morning. I graduated with Melissa and it seems just like yesterday we are all sitting in the climate lab at the round table studying and talking about an upcoming meteorology exam...especially our water resources class. Melissa was also the morning weather anchor at WCBI in Columbus at the time so her smile always started my morning when I was checking to see how the weather looked for the day.

* Melissa's story is one of courage and sadness... and I would like to share it with you. My prayers are with her family during this time. Its a sad loss for our all of us who when through the program at MSU with Melissa and had the honor of spending time with her every day at Mississippi State.

http://www.wbtv.com/news/greer

Dry Weekend Ahead:

2007-04-20T03:45:00.000-05:00

* Short chat this morning here on the blog as I am having computer issues with our weather graphics system this morning... so that is top issue right now for our pc tech at WTOK and I right now...

* High pressure will dominate the forecast through early next week and as you can see from the graphic loaded, this is keeping the jet stream and storm track off to our west and to our north. The high will shift eastward by early next week and my the middle of the week a storm system will take shape to west and move across the Twin States by Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Long range models (mostly the GFS that I have looked at this morning) hint we could see some strong to severe storms with this system. I did like the fact the model was painting 1.00" + rain chances for the area. Rob will have more on next weeks rain chances over the weekend here on the blog and Newscenter 11 and Trent and I next week. (We're getting Trent set up to blog on here soon...)

* Quick note that the NWS Jackson will be in Meridian this Monday at 7:00PM for a SKYWARN Storm Spotter Class at the Lauderdale Co. Emergency Management Office (LEMA). If you know where the Central Fire Station for Meridian is on the hill... the LEMA office is just across the street from the fire station.

* Have a good weekend...

Quiet Weather Trend:

2007-04-19T03:50:00.000-05:00

* The only big weather story this morning is the areas of fog along and south of US 80. The weather pattern looks great as we head into the weekend with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and daytime highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows are going to climb into the 50s as well by the weekend.

* Rain Chances: Not good through the first of next week as a ridge will hold the storm track well to the north of Mississippi and Alabama. As we go into the week, the ridge will shift toward the Atlantic coast and put the area back under a southerly flow. This will allow a few weak shortwaves to sneek in the back door and bring a few showers and a thunderstorm on the first part of the week, but I will admit I'm not that impressed with the models on this trend. At that time we should see dewpoints begin to rise as well. Longer range models seems to hint at a better rain chance late next week for the area.

* Drought: Some of you saw my story (yea I'm back reporting too part time) on the drought update and have emailed me about where to get the data. The link for the US Drought Monitor is: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

I will say this rain deficit is hurting everyone. Its stricks me odd that for the last two years at my old job doing weekend weather and reporting in San Angelo, Texas I was reporting on the same thing... drought. The only difference is there a rain deficit of 4 or 5 inches is a drought for them... where as for us its not unusual to be that below as something usually comes along and helps us make up that deficit. Being that we are well over 14 inches below... I am worried about what the summer is going to be like around here. I surely hope that 107 degree day I experienced out there doesn't come to Meridian for a visit. ( I remember that quiet well... it was the middle of September and on a Sunday. The dewpoint that day varied from negative 2 to positive 5... and talk about no humidity!)

* Early May outlooks from NOAA suggest "normal" precipitation for May... although I don't think "normal" works when we are this low. Temperatures are suggested to be above normal which is pretty much the trend we have been seeing since early March. I am not going to open pandora's box and blame it on "you know what" because long term data shows years here in the Twin States it has been worse than this.

* Have yourself a great Thursday. See you on Good Morning Meridian and on the news tonight when I am reporting on something! Don't forget to wake up and tune in 30 minutes earlier Monday as we start our new Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition... so GMM is now going to be 90 minutes long from 5:30 - 7:00.

Radar Update:

2007-04-18T07:11:00.000-05:00

(7:00 AM - Click for larger view)

* The rain mass with some embedded thunder will continue to move through the area this morning. I expect rain totals anywhere from 0.10" to 0.25" in some spots. The heavier rains seem to be south of US 80 and along the US 84 corridor.

Good Morning Meridian Not On Air...

2007-04-18T06:08:00.000-05:00

* We're having some technical issues getting us on the air this morning. Our staff is working to get us on tv as soon as possible.

* In the meantime, until we get back on the air please visit our weather page to get the latest forecast and current radar:

http://www.wtok.com/weather

Showers Today & Nice Weather Heading Toward The Weekend:

2007-04-18T05:02:00.000-05:00

(5:00 AM - Click for larger view)

* A band of rain with some embedded thunder will work its way across Mississippi and in West Alabama this morning. No severe weather is expect with this rain mass but we could see up to 0.25" of rain in some spots... not enough to help the drought but every little drop helps.

* Beyond today it looks to be a nice week with sunshine dominating the forecast through early weekend. Highs will head back into the upper 70s and lower 80s later this week. Weekend plans look to be in shape with partly cloudy skies and low 80s for the area.

* Hope everyone enjoyed meeting Trent last night on the newscasts. Trent is the hometown guy from the Meridian area and is the new head of the weather team. Our work schedules are going to be a bit off for a while. Trent will be here on Tuesday - Friday nights and I am covering the morning shifts and the Monday night shows until we get everything settled. So for those of you wondering I am still here... I am still WTOK's morning meteorologist until the end of January. When that time comes, no telling where I will be!

* More news in the morning: Starting next week Andrea and I are going to be with you even earlier in the morning. Starting Monday, we launch Good Morning Meridian: Early Edition at 5:30 AM. This means East Mississippi and West Alabama will now have 90 minutes of news, weather and sports to start your day. Our new 5:30 show is going to focus more on local and national news and of course weather while our normal 6:00 - 7:00 AM time shot will stay the same format your use to on GMM. So I guess this means I have to get to bed a bit earlier now... not to mention make sure those contacts aren't dried out at 5:30 so I am not blinking so bad...lol!

* See you on Good Morning Meridian and catch Trent tonight on Newscenter 11...

Another Nice Day Tuesday... Rain Returns Wednesday:

2007-04-16T17:30:00.000-05:00

* Another nice day will set up for Tuesday across the Twin States. We'll see another cool morning across the area with upper 30s and lower 40s. It will be warmer during the day on Tuesday as a warm front will move up through Mississippi and Alabama and will bring a warmer airmass into the area. Daytime highs will climb into the 80s by afternoon.

* A storm system across Texas will move toward our area bringing rain chances back into the forecast late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. There may be a few thunderstorms Tuesday night but I don't expect severe weather. Wednesday will probably remind you of a London or Seattle type day with cloudy skies and light rain or drizzle. It will be humid with high temperatures in the lower 70s.

* The U.S. Drought Monitor now places all of the WTOK viewing area under a Severe Stage Drought... more specifically a Agricultural and Hydrological Drought.

US Drought Monitor: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Storm Spotter Class Later This Month:

2007-04-16T08:15:00.000-05:00

* A reminder the National Weather Service in Jackson will be in Lauderdale County for a SKYWARN Storm Spotter Class in our area later this month:

Lauderdale Co. Emergency Management Agency (LEMA) Office
(Located across from the Meridian Central Fire Station on the hill)
April 23, 2007 at 7:00 PM
FMI: David Sharp 601-482-9852

Dry & Pleasant Weather:

2007-04-16T07:15:00.000-05:00

* Great weather to start the week but a very chilly start. At the time I write this Key Field sits at 32 degrees. I will note this ties the low today of 32 degrees set back in 1950. The normal low is 50 degrees.. so nearly 20 degrees below normal. We'll see a nice warmup today as this dry air warms efficently with daytime highs back into the lower 70s.

* A warm front will move through the area tomorrow and will help highs warm up into the lower 80s. A storm over the Four Corners region will work across the Deep South and bring clouds and showers to the area on Wednesday. No severe weather expected or heavy rain. It just looks to be a cloudy with on and off showers. Once we get past that period looks like a nice week for the area.

* Drought update: We are placed under a Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor for Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama. The strong to severe thunderstorms brought some rain on Saturday but not enough to make much of a dent in the drought issue.

* Have yourself a good day. I'll have more tonight at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00 PM

Deadly Tornado in South Carolina

2007-04-15T19:57:00.000-05:00

While our area was fortunate in that there were no deaths or injuries from the storms on Saturday, the same can not be said tonight in South Carolina. At about 8:35 this morning, an EF3 tornado (winds 136-165mph) struck just east of the town of Mulberry in Sumter County, SC. One person was killed and three others were injured. Several mobile homes were destroyed, and reports indicate that those people killed and injured were likely in the mobile homes when the tornado struck. The tornado was on the ground for 14 miles.

This is a painfull reminder that mobile homes are not a safe place to be during thunderstorms. With the walls of a mobile home not as structurally strong as a house, they can easily be destroyed. If a severe thunderstorm approaches your area while you're in a mobile home, go to a house or building that provides better shelter.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the families of those in Mulberry as tonight and the days ahead will be quite difficult for them.

Saturday's Storm Reports

2007-04-15T19:36:00.000-05:00

Here's a list of severe weather reports from the Newscenter11 area yesterday:

Tornado:
A weak F0 (winds 65-85mph) briefly touched down about nine miles west of Ellisville in Jones County. It was a very brief touchdown and no damage was done.

Hail:
Pea size hail west of Thomastown in Leake County.
Pea size hail in Calhoun in Jones County.
Nickel size hail between Ludlow and Lena in Leake County.
Nickel size hail in Shady Grove Community north of Laurel in Jones County.

Wind:
Trees blown down west of Thomastown in Leake County.
Trees blown down in Buckatunna area in Wayne County.
Numerous trees were blown down also in Wayne County near the state line.
Trees and power lines were blown down about ten miles northwest of Jackson along AL Hwy 69 near Salitpa in Clarke County, Alabama.

Outside of the Newscenter11 area, an EF1 tornado (winds 86-110mph) touched down east of the Sunrise Community in Forrest County, which is about five miles east/southeast of Petal. A home suffered significant damage, while another received minor damage. The tornado also tore down/uprooted several trees and power lines. The highest wind speed with this tornado was estimated at about 90mph.

Cool Day and Cold Night

2007-04-15T19:30:00.000-05:00

* Today was quite a bit cooler than yesterday. The high in Meridian today was 60, as compared to the 77 we enjoyed on Sunday! We can say "thank you" to the wind that was blowing up to 30mph at times for bringing in the cooler temperatures. The winds have died down now that the sun has set, but could be breezy again on Monday anwhere from 10-20mph from the northwest.

* With the winds dying down and clear skies above us means that frost is possible tonight, but mainly in the outlying areas area from the city heat. The best chance of seeing frost will be in areas along and north of I-20, and even then it will be in patchy areas. Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid-30s. Hopefully this will be the last time that we see the 30s until next fall. I am not a fan of cold weather in April.

Wayne & Choctaw County Updates

2007-04-14T19:20:00.000-05:00

* The tornado watch has been cancelled for Wayne County in Mississippi and Choctaw County in Alabama. Expect temperatures to cool rapidly this evening with strong northwesterly winds.

Tornado Watch Update

2007-04-14T18:49:00.000-05:00

* A tornado watch remains in effect for Marengo, Clarke, and Choctaw counties in Alabama, as well as Wayne county in Mississippi. However, the line of showers and thundershowers that is currently moving through is not severe, and I suspect that the National Weather Service will drop the watch from those counties within the hour.

* With that said, a strong storm will move through Clarke county during the next 30-40min. This storm may produce some small hail (pea size), wind gusts to 35-40mph, and frequent lightning.

* This line of showers/thundershowers is along a cold front that has already moved through much of the area. After the front moves through, expect a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures within two hours!!! Winds will be from the northwest at 10-20mph, with gusts up to 30mph!

* It will be quite cool tonight!

New Tornado Watch Until 11:00 PM

2007-04-14T17:25:00.000-05:00

* SPC has just issued a new Tornado Watch until 11:00 PM CDT mostly for the southeastern part of our viewing area.

In Mississippi: Wayne

In Alabama: Choctaw, Clarke and Marengo.

* Rob Hart will have more on Newscenter 11 at 6:00 PM...

Strong Storm in Clarke County, MS

2007-04-14T14:59:00.000-05:00

* A strong storm is affecting southern Clarke County in Mississippi. The storm is currently over De Soto, in the southern part of the county beween Quitman and Shubutta. Pea size hail may occur with this storm, and possibly some lightning, as it moves to the northest at about 45mph.

Clarke County, AL Storm Report

2007-04-14T13:23:00.000-05:00

* There have been reports of trees and powerlines blown down about ten miles northwest of the City of Jackson in Clarke County, AL. Most of the damage is along Hwy 69 in Salitpa.

* The storm continues to remain over central Clarke County as it continues off to the east. It has weakened some, but hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are possible with this storm. Flooding may also become an issue as the storm continues to move over the same area.

Clarke County Update

2007-04-14T12:58:00.000-05:00

* A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING continues until 1:30 for central Clarke County in Alabama. The most dangerous part of the storm is currently over the City of Grove Hill. Scyrene, Dickinson, and Whatley are in the path of the most dangerous part of this storm.

* This storm is capable of producing golf ball size hail and winds up to 80mph!!! Some minor rotation is also occuring with this storm, but this is common with storms that produce large hail. No tornado has been detected at this time.

* This storm continues to move to the east at 45mph.

Jones County Tornado

2007-04-14T12:51:00.000-05:00

* An EF-0 tornado (top winds 65-85mph) occurred at about 10:35 this morning in Jones County. The tornado briefly touched down about nine miles west of Ellisville . No damage has been found with this tornado.

* Jones County is quite lucky as the velocity signatures on the radars were indicating the possibility of a large and damaging tornado!

Forrest County Update

2007-04-14T12:42:00.000-05:00

* Extensive damage has been reported about eight miles east/southeast of Hattiesburg in Forrest County. Significant damage has been reported near the Sunrise Community, and one house has been deemed "uninhabitable" from the damage. In addition, numerous trees and powerlines are down.

* National Weather Service assessment teams will go to the area to decide whether strong winds or a tornado caused the damage.

* Flooding has also been reported on the west side of Hattiesburg where five houses on Bridges Circle were flooded.

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